Too early to say: Montserrat have 3 points over their last 4 WC Qualification Concacaf games against 2.89 expected points (xPts), and 4 games is not enough for the gap between results and chances to mean anything.
Montserrat create 0.80 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 4 WC Qualification Concacaf games, 3.20 in all, and have scored 3 goals from those chances, 0.20 fewer than that xG would expect.
Montserrat allow 1.88 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 4 WC Qualification Concacaf games, 7.52 in all, and have conceded 10 goals from those chances, 2.48 more than that xGA would expect.
4 tracked games is not enough for the gap between results and chances to mean anything. The numbers below are real, the verdict is not yet.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 4 | 4 | 3.20 | 3 | -0.20 | 7.52 | 10 | -2.48 | 2.89 | 3 | +0.11 |
| Home | 2 | 1.50 | 2 | +0.50 | 3.67 | 3 | +0.67 | 1.50 | 3 | +1.50 |
| Away | 2 | 1.70 | 1 | -0.70 | 3.85 | 7 | -3.15 | 1.39 | 0 | -1.39 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jun | WC Qualification Concacaf | Guyana (A) | 3-0 | 0.84 | 2.06 | 0.63 | 0 | L |
| 4 Jun | WC Qualification Concacaf | Belize (H) | 1-0 | 0.99 | 1.21 | 1.19 | 3 | L |
| 10 Jun | WC Qualification Concacaf | Panama (H) | 1-3 | 0.51 | 2.46 | 0.31 | 0 | L |
| 6 Jun | WC Qualification Concacaf | Nicaragua (A) | 4-1 | 0.86 | 1.79 | 0.76 | 0 | L |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curacao | 9 | 13.9 | 25 | 10.5 | 3 | 13.6 | 21 | +7.4 |
| 2 | Panama | 10 | 19.3 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 19.5 | 24 | +4.5 |
| 3 | Jamaica | 10 | 16.5 | 19 | 7.4 | 5 | 19.4 | 23 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Suriname | 10 | 13.8 | 19 | 10.9 | 8 | 15.4 | 19 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Haiti | 10 | 16.5 | 20 | 11.1 | 13 | 17.3 | 20 | +2.7 |
| 6 | Puerto Rico | 4 | 5 | 10 | 4.2 | 2 | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 |
| 7 | Grenada | 4 | 5.3 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 5.8 | 7 | +1.2 |
| 8 | Costa Rica | 10 | 17.6 | 25 | 8.6 | 7 | 17.9 | 19 | +1.1 |
| 9 | Cayman Islands | 3 | 1.7 | 1 | 5.5 | 6 | 2.1 | 3 | +0.9 |
| 10 | Honduras | 10 | 18 | 17 | 6.1 | 4 | 20.2 | 21 | +0.8 |
| 11 | Guatemala | 10 | 14.9 | 21 | 9.8 | 12 | 16.2 | 17 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Nicaragua | 10 | 11.1 | 13 | 12.7 | 16 | 12.5 | 13 | +0.5 |
| 13 | Dominica | 4 | 3.9 | 5 | 10.4 | 14 | 2.7 | 3 | +0.3 |
| 14 | Montserrat | 4 | 3.2 | 3 | 7.5 | 10 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| 15 | Bermuda | 9 | 8.5 | 11 | 17.7 | 28 | 8.4 | 8 | -0.4 |
| 16 | St. Lucia | 4 | 4.9 | 5 | 7.2 | 9 | 4.4 | 4 | -0.4 |
| 17 | Aruba | 4 | 4.2 | 3 | 9.3 | 10 | 2.6 | 2 | -0.6 |
| 18 | Guyana | 3 | 4.2 | 3 | 4.9 | 3 | 3.7 | 3 | -0.7 |
| 19 | Anguilla | 4 | 0.8 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 20 | Cuba | 3 | 3.2 | 3 | 3.5 | 5 | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 |
| 21 | Bahamas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10.5 | 22 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| 22 | Antigua and Barbuda | 4 | 3.3 | 1 | 8.8 | 5 | 2.6 | 1 | -1.6 |
| 23 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 4 | 3.7 | 9 | 4.7 | 9 | 4.8 | 3 | -1.8 |
| 24 | Dominican Republic | 4 | 8.5 | 11 | 3.1 | 5 | 8.1 | 6 | -2.1 |
| 25 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 4 | 6.4 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 |
| 26 | El Salvador | 10 | 10.9 | 9 | 12.4 | 13 | 13.2 | 11 | -2.2 |
| 27 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 2.7 | 0 | 7.7 | 11 | 2.4 | 0 | -2.4 |
| 28 | Belize | 3 | 2.8 | 0 | 5.1 | 7 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |
| 29 | Trinidad and Tobago | 10 | 17 | 23 | 12 | 13 | 16.9 | 14 | -2.9 |
| 30 | Barbados | 4 | 5.1 | 4 | 6.2 | 10 | 4.7 | 1 | -3.7 |