No, Independiente Medellín have taken 7 points over their last 6 Copa Libertadores games, within 0.25 of the 6.75 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Independiente Medellín create 0.72 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 6 Copa Libertadores games, 4.30 in all, and have scored 6 goals from those chances, 1.70 more than that xG would expect.
Independiente Medellín allow 1.19 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 6 Copa Libertadores games, 7.12 in all, and have conceded 11 goals from those chances, 3.88 more than that xGA would expect.
Independiente Medellín's results and their chances agree, within 0.3 points of xPts over 6 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 6 | 4.30 | 6 | +1.70 | 7.12 | 11 | -3.88 | 6.75 | 7 | +0.25 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.67 | 5 | +1.33 | 6.70 | 10 | -3.30 | 5.27 | 6 | +0.73 |
| Home | 3 | 1.88 | 2 | +0.12 | 0.99 | 4 | -3.01 | 4.37 | 4 | -0.37 |
| Away | 3 | 2.42 | 4 | +1.58 | 6.13 | 7 | -0.87 | 2.38 | 3 | +0.62 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May | Copa Libertadores | Estudiantes (A) | 1-0 | 0.32 | 2.00 | 0.32 | 0 | L |
| 21 May | Copa Libertadores | Cusco FC (A) | 2-3 | 1.74 | 0.93 | 1.93 | 3 | W |
| 8 May | Copa Libertadores | Flamengo (H) | 0-3 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.90 | 0 | D |
| 1 May | Copa Libertadores | Cusco FC (H) | 1-0 | 1.25 | 0.46 | 1.99 | 3 | W |
| 17 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Flamengo (A) | 4-1 | 0.36 | 3.20 | 0.13 | 0 | L |
| 9 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Estudiantes (H) | 1-1 | 0.63 | 0.42 | 1.48 | 1 | D |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Fydriszewski | attacker | 5 | 435 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexis Serna | midfielder | 4 | 297 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Yony González | attacker | 5 | 325 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Francisco Chaverra | attacker | 5 | 279 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Baldomero Perlaza | midfielder | 5 | 280 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Rivadavia | 6 | 8.9 | 15 | 5.4 | 6 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 6 | 7.9 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteño | 6 | 5.3 | 6 | 7.2 | 2 | 7.3 | 13 | +5.7 |
| 4 | Universidad Católica | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7.4 | 13 | +5.6 |
| 5 | UCV | 6 | 6.2 | 7 | 12.8 | 11 | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 6 | 7.1 | 8 | 6.5 | 5 | 8.7 | 12 | +3.3 |
| 7 | Rosario Central | 6 | 10.4 | 9 | 6.1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | +2 |
| 8 | Mirassol | 6 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | +2 |
| 9 | Santa Fe | 6 | 4.1 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Nacional | 6 | 4.8 | 7 | 7.9 | 9 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 11 | Platense | 6 | 4.9 | 8 | 3.9 | 7 | 8.7 | 10 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Lanús | 6 | 6.3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8.4 | 9 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Independiente del Valle | 6 | 12.6 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12.5 | 13 | +0.5 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 6 | 7.6 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10.6 | 11 | +0.4 |
| 15 | Independiente Medellín | 6 | 4.3 | 6 | 7.1 | 11 | 6.8 | 7 | +0.2 |
| 16 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 6.4 | 7 | 5.7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -0 |
| 17 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 6 | 3.1 | 2 | 12.2 | 12 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| 18 | Coquimbo Unido | 6 | 8.2 | 8 | 4.9 | 6 | 10.7 | 10 | -0.7 |
| 19 | Estudiantes | 6 | 8 | 6 | 5.1 | 5 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 20 | Cruzeiro | 6 | 10.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 3 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 21 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 3.6 | 6 | 10.6 | 13 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 22 | Palmeiras | 6 | 12.2 | 10 | 5.8 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 23 | Universitario | 6 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 | 7.4 | 6 | -1.4 |
| 24 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 7.3 | 6 | 8.7 | 9 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| 25 | Junior FC | 6 | 6.1 | 5 | 9.2 | 11 | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 |
| 26 | Fluminense | 6 | 7.4 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 10.7 | 8 | -2.7 |
| 27 | Always Ready | 6 | 6.7 | 7 | 10.7 | 9 | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 |
| 28 | Club Bolívar | 6 | 6.4 | 6 | 7.3 | 8 | 8.1 | 5 | -3.1 |
| 29 | Peñarol | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7.7 | 8 | 6.4 | 3 | -3.4 |
| 30 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 9 | 6 | 4.3 | 5 | 10.9 | 7 | -3.9 |
| 31 | Cusco FC | 6 | 4.9 | 4 | 7.9 | 12 | 6 | 1 | -5 |
| 32 | Libertad | 6 | 5.4 | 4 | 10.8 | 13 | 5.1 | 0 | -5.1 |