Yes, Houston have taken 47 points over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 10.27 more than the 36.73 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Houston create 1.13 expected goals (xG) per game over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 33.88 in all, and have scored 41 goals from those chances, 7.12 more than that xG would expect.
Houston allow 1.45 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 43.62 in all, and have conceded 39 goals from those chances, 4.62 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Mateusz Bogusz has the most expected goals (xG) for Houston over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 9.19 xG in 29 appearances, and has scored 8 goals; Guilherme is next with 6.72 xG.
Houston have taken 10.3 points more than their chances warranted over 30 games: +7.1 goals against their xG, and +4.6 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 30 | 33.88 | 41 | +7.12 | 43.62 | 39 | +4.62 | 36.73 | 47 | +10.27 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 12.54 | 12 | -0.54 | 19.88 | 15 | +4.88 | 10.17 | 9 | -1.17 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.88 | 9 | +2.12 | 13.24 | 11 | +2.24 | 4.08 | 4 | -0.08 |
| Home | 15 | 17.23 | 19 | +1.77 | 22.02 | 14 | +8.02 | 18.59 | 28 | +9.41 |
| Away | 15 | 16.65 | 22 | +5.35 | 21.60 | 25 | -3.40 | 18.14 | 19 | +0.86 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Major League Soccer | Dallas (H) | 2-2 | 1.44 | 2.73 | 0.72 | 1 | L |
| 15 Oct | Major League Soccer | San Diego (A) | 3-3 | 1.05 | 2.87 | 0.47 | 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | Major League Soccer | Minnesota (A) | 2-2 | 1.60 | 1.53 | 1.43 | 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | Major League Soccer | Sporting KC (H) | 0-2 | 1.45 | 1.74 | 1.20 | 0 | L |
| 20 Sep | Major League Soccer | Cincinnati (H) | 2-2 | 1.34 | 4.37 | 0.26 | 1 | L |
| 13 Sep | Major League Soccer | San Jose (A) | 1-0 | 0.93 | 1.40 | 1.02 | 0 | L |
| 10 Sep | Major League Soccer | RSL (H) | 2-1 | 1.43 | 1.52 | 1.32 | 3 | L |
| 5 Sep | Major League Soccer | Charlotte (A) | 0-0 | 1.14 | 0.97 | 1.48 | 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | Major League Soccer | San Jose (H) | 0-0 | 0.60 | 1.43 | 0.74 | 1 | L |
| 23 Aug | Major League Soccer | St. Louis (A) | 2-1 | 1.56 | 1.32 | 1.53 | 0 | W |
| 20 Aug | Major League Soccer | Vancouver (A) | 0-1 | 0.70 | 1.47 | 0.80 | 3 | L |
| 16 Aug | Major League Soccer | LA Galaxy (H) | 1-0 | 1.32 | 1.01 | 1.58 | 3 | W |
| 8 Aug | Major League Soccer | New England (A) | 0-2 | 1.11 | 0.42 | 1.92 | 3 | W |
| 2 Aug | Major League Soccer | Sporting KC (A) | 0-2 | 1.14 | 0.29 | 2.07 | 3 | W |
| 26 Jul | Major League Soccer | Austin (H) | 3-0 | 1.23 | 0.91 | 1.59 | 3 | W |
| 23 Jul | Major League Soccer | DC United (H) | 1-1 | 1.20 | 0.57 | 1.86 | 1 | W |
| 24 May | Major League Soccer | LA Galaxy (A) | 1-1 | 0.56 | 2.90 | 0.25 | 1 | L |
| 17 May | Major League Soccer | Vancouver (H) | 1-0 | 1.08 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 3 | W |
| 14 May | Major League Soccer | RSL (A) | 3-0 | 0.86 | 0.66 | 1.49 | 0 | W |
| 11 May | Major League Soccer | LAFC (A) | 1-4 | 0.88 | 1.60 | 0.87 | 3 | L |
| 3 May | Major League Soccer | Colorado (H) | 1-0 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 1.48 | 3 | D |
| 26 Apr | Major League Soccer | Austin (A) | 2-0 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 1.40 | 0 | W |
| 23 Apr | Major League Soccer | San Diego (H) | 1-0 | 0.78 | 1.26 | 0.99 | 3 | L |
| 18 Apr | Major League Soccer | Orlando City (A) | 0-1 | 1.20 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 3 | L |
| 12 Apr | Major League Soccer | Colorado (A) | 6-2 | 1.99 | 2.17 | 1.29 | 0 | L |
| 5 Apr | Major League Soccer | Seattle (H) | 0-1 | 1.04 | 0.89 | 1.46 | 0 | W |
| 22 Mar | Major League Soccer | Dallas (A) | 4-3 | 0.94 | 1.78 | 0.83 | 0 | L |
| 15 Mar | Major League Soccer | Portland (H) | 3-2 | 1.49 | 2.39 | 0.89 | 3 | L |
| 1 Mar | Major League Soccer | LAFC (H) | 0-2 | 1.29 | 1.52 | 1.22 | 0 | L |
| 22 Feb | Major League Soccer | Chicago Fire (H) | 2-1 | 0.89 | 0.56 | 1.61 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilherme | attacker | 29 | 2473 | 6.72 | 16 | +9.28 | 0.24 |
| Lawrence Ennali | attacker | 30 | 2467 | 1.48 | 3 | +1.52 | 0.05 |
| Jack McGlynn | midfielder | 18 | 1375 | 0.64 | 2 | +1.36 | 0.04 |
| Héctor Herrera | midfielder | 28 | 1672 | 1.98 | 3 | +1.02 | 0.11 |
| Agustin Resch | defender | 25 | 1777 | 0.24 | 1 | +0.76 | 0.01 |
| Erik Sviatchenko | defender | 10 | 628 | 0.29 | 1 | +0.71 | 0.04 |
| Ibrahim Aliyu | attacker | 22 | 640 | 1.32 | 2 | +0.68 | 0.19 |
| Franco Negri | defender | 18 | 965 | 0.38 | 1 | +0.62 | 0.04 |
| Lyle Foster | attacker | 4 | 200 | 0.60 | 1 | +0.40 | 0.27 |
| Duncan McGuire | attacker | 16 | 496 | 0.64 | 1 | +0.36 | 0.12 |
| Felipe Andrade | defender | 22 | 1821 | 1.02 | 1 | -0.02 | 0.05 |
| AgustÃn Bouzat | midfielder | 25 | 1422 | 1.22 | 1 | -0.22 | 0.08 |
| Nick Markanich | attacker | 10 | 132 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.43 |
| Ondrej Lingr | midfielder | 17 | 455 | 0.84 | 0 | -0.84 | 0.17 |
| Lucas Halter | defender | 18 | 1566 | 0.88 | 0 | -0.88 | 0.05 |
| Antônio Carlos | defender | 19 | 1573 | 1.11 | 0 | -1.11 | 0.06 |
| Mateusz Bogusz | midfielder | 29 | 2513 | 9.19 | 8 | -1.19 | 0.33 |
| Ezequiel Ponce | attacker | 17 | 1117 | 3.48 | 0 | -3.48 | 0.28 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 49.9 | 64 | 38.1 | 23 | 46.5 | 67 | +20.5 |
| 2 | New England | 30 | 45.4 | 49 | 45 | 41 | 40.9 | 52 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 33.9 | 41 | 43.6 | 39 | 36.7 | 47 | +10.3 |
| 4 | Inter Miami | 30 | 58.3 | 73 | 49.4 | 51 | 46.6 | 55 | +8.4 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 47.3 | 53 | 52.7 | 45 | 39.7 | 47 | +7.3 |
| 6 | Dallas | 30 | 46.4 | 55 | 41.9 | 47 | 44.7 | 51 | +6.3 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 30 | 47.6 | 58 | 59.5 | 70 | 36.3 | 41 | +4.7 |
| 8 | Austin | 30 | 30.3 | 38 | 61.7 | 56 | 26.3 | 31 | +4.7 |
| 9 | St. Louis City | 30 | 47.1 | 56 | 38.2 | 41 | 46.9 | 51 | +4.1 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 54.6 | 52 | 44 | 44 | 46.7 | 48 | +1.3 |
| 11 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 47.2 | 48 | 43.1 | 33 | 44.8 | 46 | +1.2 |
| 12 | Toronto | 30 | 37.3 | 46 | 47.7 | 55 | 34.8 | 36 | +1.2 |
| 13 | LA Galaxy | 31 | 46.2 | 43 | 52.3 | 52 | 39.3 | 40 | +0.7 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 44 | 39 | 44.3 | 37 | 41.4 | 42 | +0.6 |
| 15 | SJ Earthquakes | 30 | 54.2 | 52 | 41 | 42 | 47.6 | 48 | +0.4 |
| 16 | New York RB | 30 | 49.4 | 39 | 56.5 | 56 | 37.8 | 36 | -1.8 |
| 17 | Cincinnati | 28 | 51.3 | 60 | 52.5 | 68 | 38.5 | 36 | -2.5 |
| 18 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 62.9 | 63 | 32.2 | 31 | 57.7 | 55 | -2.7 |
| 19 | Real Salt Lake | 30 | 41.9 | 45 | 44.7 | 48 | 39.1 | 36 | -3.1 |
| 20 | DC United | 29 | 44.4 | 37 | 51.6 | 51 | 36.1 | 33 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 60.6 | 61 | 41.8 | 48 | 51.4 | 46 | -5.4 |
| 22 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 43.8 | 51 | 48.3 | 56 | 39.8 | 34 | -5.8 |
| 23 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 45.5 | 41 | 35 | 41 | 45.5 | 39 | -6.5 |
| 24 | Sporting KC | 30 | 35.1 | 36 | 60.9 | 75 | 29 | 22 | -7 |
| 25 | New York City | 30 | 43.3 | 43 | 43.2 | 41 | 41.8 | 34 | -7.8 |
| 26 | San Diego | 30 | 48.9 | 53 | 49.1 | 56 | 43.7 | 34 | -9.7 |
| 27 | Atlanta United | 30 | 44.3 | 37 | 46.6 | 51 | 40.2 | 30 | -10.2 |
| 28 | Minnesota United | 30 | 52.1 | 47 | 49.3 | 55 | 44.3 | 34 | -10.3 |
| 29 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 44.1 | 44 | 35.7 | 47 | 43.1 | 32 | -11.1 |
| 30 | CF Montréal | 30 | 42.4 | 36 | 50.1 | 60 | 38 | 25 | -13 |