No, Deportes Tolima have taken 8 points over their last 6 Copa Libertadores games, within 0.04 of the 8.04 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Deportes Tolima create 1.07 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 6 Copa Libertadores games, 6.44 in all, and have scored 7 goals from those chances, 0.56 more than that xG would expect.
Deportes Tolima allow 0.95 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 6 Copa Libertadores games, 5.67 in all, and have conceded 6 goals from those chances, 0.33 more than that xGA would expect.
Deportes Tolima's results and their chances agree, within 0.0 points of xPts over 6 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 6 | 6.44 | 7 | +0.56 | 5.67 | 6 | -0.33 | 8.04 | 8 | -0.04 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.13 | 7 | +0.87 | 5.20 | 6 | -0.80 | 6.98 | 7 | +0.02 |
| Home | 3 | 5.29 | 6 | +0.71 | 1.25 | 0 | +1.25 | 6.29 | 7 | +0.71 |
| Away | 3 | 1.15 | 1 | -0.15 | 4.42 | 6 | -1.58 | 1.75 | 1 | -0.75 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May | Copa Libertadores | Universitario (A) | 0-0 | 0.24 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 1 | D |
| 19 May | Copa Libertadores | Coquimbo Unido (A) | 3-0 | 0.52 | 2.36 | 0.34 | 0 | L |
| 7 May | Copa Libertadores | Nacional (H) | 3-0 | 2.70 | 0.40 | 2.67 | 3 | W |
| 29 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Coquimbo Unido (H) | 3-0 | 2.28 | 0.38 | 2.56 | 3 | W |
| 14 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Nacional (A) | 3-1 | 0.39 | 1.39 | 0.59 | 0 | L |
| 8 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Universitario (H) | 0-0 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 1.06 | 1 | D |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jersson González | attacker | 6 | 321 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Sandoval | attacker | 4 | 324 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastián Guzmán | midfielder | 6 | 418 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Jherson Mosquera | defender | 4 | 91 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Brayan Rovira | midfielder | 6 | 458 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Rivadavia | 6 | 8.9 | 15 | 5.4 | 6 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 6 | 7.9 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteño | 6 | 5.3 | 6 | 7.2 | 2 | 7.3 | 13 | +5.7 |
| 4 | Universidad Católica | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7.4 | 13 | +5.6 |
| 5 | UCV | 6 | 6.2 | 7 | 12.8 | 11 | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 6 | 7.1 | 8 | 6.5 | 5 | 8.7 | 12 | +3.3 |
| 7 | Rosario Central | 6 | 10.4 | 9 | 6.1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | +2 |
| 8 | Mirassol | 6 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | +2 |
| 9 | Santa Fe | 6 | 4.1 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Nacional | 6 | 4.8 | 7 | 7.9 | 9 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 11 | Platense | 6 | 4.9 | 8 | 3.9 | 7 | 8.7 | 10 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Lanús | 6 | 6.3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8.4 | 9 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Independiente del Valle | 6 | 12.6 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12.5 | 13 | +0.5 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 6 | 7.6 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10.6 | 11 | +0.4 |
| 15 | Independiente MedellÃn | 6 | 4.3 | 6 | 7.1 | 11 | 6.8 | 7 | +0.2 |
| 16 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 6.4 | 7 | 5.7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -0 |
| 17 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 6 | 3.1 | 2 | 12.2 | 12 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| 18 | Coquimbo Unido | 6 | 8.2 | 8 | 4.9 | 6 | 10.7 | 10 | -0.7 |
| 19 | Estudiantes | 6 | 8 | 6 | 5.1 | 5 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 20 | Cruzeiro | 6 | 10.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 3 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 21 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 3.6 | 6 | 10.6 | 13 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 22 | Palmeiras | 6 | 12.2 | 10 | 5.8 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 23 | Universitario | 6 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 | 7.4 | 6 | -1.4 |
| 24 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 7.3 | 6 | 8.7 | 9 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| 25 | Junior FC | 6 | 6.1 | 5 | 9.2 | 11 | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 |
| 26 | Fluminense | 6 | 7.4 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 10.7 | 8 | -2.7 |
| 27 | Always Ready | 6 | 6.7 | 7 | 10.7 | 9 | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 |
| 28 | Club BolÃvar | 6 | 6.4 | 6 | 7.3 | 8 | 8.1 | 5 | -3.1 |
| 29 | Peñarol | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7.7 | 8 | 6.4 | 3 | -3.4 |
| 30 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 9 | 6 | 4.3 | 5 | 10.9 | 7 | -3.9 |
| 31 | Cusco FC | 6 | 4.9 | 4 | 7.9 | 12 | 6 | 1 | -5 |
| 32 | Libertad | 6 | 5.4 | 4 | 10.8 | 13 | 5.1 | 0 | -5.1 |