No, Atlanta have taken 30 points over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 10.20 fewer than the 40.20 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Atlanta create 1.48 expected goals (xG) per game over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 44.29 in all, and have scored 37 goals from those chances, 7.29 fewer than that xG would expect.
Atlanta allow 1.56 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 46.66 in all, and have conceded 51 goals from those chances, 4.34 more than that xGA would expect.
Miguel Almirón has the most expected goals (xG) for Atlanta over 30 Major League Soccer games in 2026, 7.95 xG in 23 appearances, and has scored 6 goals; Aleksey Miranchuk is next with 5.38 xG.
Atlanta have taken 10.2 points fewer than their chances warranted over 30 games: -7.3 goals against their xG, and -4.3 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 30 | 44.29 | 37 | -7.29 | 46.66 | 51 | -4.34 | 40.20 | 30 | -10.20 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 17.93 | 14 | -3.93 | 13.06 | 16 | -2.94 | 16.46 | 12 | -4.46 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.92 | 8 | +0.08 | 6.87 | 8 | -1.13 | 7.67 | 7 | -0.67 |
| Home | 15 | 22.21 | 21 | -1.21 | 21.42 | 29 | -7.58 | 21.23 | 14 | -7.23 |
| Away | 15 | 22.08 | 16 | -6.08 | 25.24 | 22 | +3.24 | 18.97 | 16 | -2.97 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Major League Soccer | Inter Miami (H) | 1-3 | 2.01 | 1.36 | 1.79 | 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | Major League Soccer | CF Montréal (A) | 0-3 | 2.09 | 0.46 | 2.45 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | Major League Soccer | Cincinnati (H) | 1-3 | 1.84 | 1.87 | 1.37 | 0 | L |
| 26 Sep | Major League Soccer | NYCFC (H) | 2-2 | 0.99 | 0.89 | 1.43 | 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | Major League Soccer | Portland (A) | 0-1 | 0.99 | 2.29 | 0.63 | 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | Major League Soccer | DC United (A) | 0-0 | 2.98 | 0.25 | 2.79 | 1 | W |
| 9 Sep | Major League Soccer | Orlando City (H) | 2-3 | 1.08 | 2.09 | 0.77 | 0 | L |
| 6 Sep | Major League Soccer | Inter Miami (A) | 2-2 | 3.26 | 1.15 | 2.45 | 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | Major League Soccer | Charlotte (H) | 0-2 | 1.11 | 1.83 | 0.91 | 0 | L |
| 23 Aug | Major League Soccer | Sporting KC (H) | 2-1 | 1.58 | 0.87 | 1.87 | 3 | W |
| 20 Aug | Major League Soccer | Minnesota (A) | 1-2 | 0.65 | 2.35 | 0.41 | 3 | L |
| 15 Aug | Major League Soccer | New York RB (H) | 2-1 | 1.69 | 1.30 | 1.64 | 3 | W |
| 1 Aug | Major League Soccer | Philadelphia (A) | 3-2 | 0.59 | 3.04 | 0.23 | 0 | L |
| 25 Jul | Major League Soccer | New England (A) | 4-1 | 1.03 | 2.15 | 0.72 | 0 | L |
| 23 Jul | Major League Soccer | Charlotte (A) | 2-2 | 1.77 | 2.86 | 0.84 | 1 | L |
| 18 Jul | Major League Soccer | Nashville SC (A) | 1-0 | 1.45 | 0.74 | 1.89 | 0 | W |
| 24 May | Major League Soccer | Columbus (A) | 2-0 | 1.19 | 1.65 | 1.07 | 0 | L |
| 16 May | Major League Soccer | Orlando City (A) | 1-1 | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.36 | 1 | L |
| 9 May | Major League Soccer | LA Galaxy (H) | 1-2 | 1.57 | 1.75 | 1.27 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | Major League Soccer | CF Montréal (H) | 3-1 | 1.36 | 0.79 | 1.79 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | Major League Soccer | Toronto (A) | 1-2 | 0.80 | 0.61 | 1.49 | 3 | D |
| 22 Apr | Major League Soccer | New England (H) | 1-2 | 2.74 | 1.16 | 2.27 | 0 | W |
| 18 Apr | Major League Soccer | Nashville SC (H) | 0-2 | 0.83 | 1.92 | 0.68 | 0 | L |
| 12 Apr | Major League Soccer | Chicago Fire (A) | 1-0 | 2.35 | 2.31 | 1.42 | 0 | W |
| 4 Apr | Major League Soccer | Columbus (H) | 1-3 | 1.15 | 1.75 | 0.98 | 0 | L |
| 21 Mar | Major League Soccer | DC United (H) | 0-0 | 0.45 | 0.18 | 1.52 | 1 | D |
| 14 Mar | Major League Soccer | Philadelphia (H) | 3-1 | 2.11 | 2.53 | 1.18 | 3 | L |
| 8 Mar | Major League Soccer | RSL (H) | 2-3 | 1.70 | 1.13 | 1.76 | 0 | W |
| 1 Mar | Major League Soccer | San Jose (A) | 2-0 | 0.93 | 2.31 | 0.59 | 0 | L |
| 21 Feb | Major League Soccer | Cincinnati (A) | 2-0 | 0.59 | 1.65 | 0.63 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajani Fortune | midfielder | 16 | 710 | 0.84 | 3 | +2.16 | 0.11 |
| Tristan Muyumba | midfielder | 30 | 2175 | 2.41 | 4 | +1.59 | 0.10 |
| Tomás Jacob | defender | 26 | 2174 | 1.57 | 3 | +1.43 | 0.07 |
| Fafà Picault | attacker | 21 | 761 | 3.10 | 4 | +0.90 | 0.37 |
| Aleksey Miranchuk | midfielder | 28 | 2269 | 5.38 | 6 | +0.62 | 0.21 |
| Giuliano Galoppo | midfielder | 5 | 393 | 1.46 | 2 | +0.54 | 0.33 |
| Saba Lobjanidze | attacker | 13 | 633 | 1.98 | 2 | +0.02 | 0.28 |
| Juan Berrocal | defender | 9 | 731 | 0.50 | 0 | -0.50 | 0.06 |
| Mauricio Amaro | midfielder | 8 | 623 | 0.66 | 0 | -0.66 | 0.10 |
| ElÃas Báez | defender | 27 | 2376 | 1.69 | 1 | -0.69 | 0.06 |
| Sergio Santos | attacker | 8 | 98 | 0.70 | 0 | -0.70 | 0.64 |
| Enea Mihaj | defender | 23 | 1574 | 0.71 | 0 | -0.71 | 0.04 |
| Cayman Togashi | attacker | 7 | 100 | 0.81 | 0 | -0.81 | 0.72 |
| MatÃas Galarza Fonda | midfielder | 10 | 667 | 1.08 | 0 | -1.08 | 0.15 |
| Breel Embolo | attacker | 8 | 692 | 3.11 | 2 | -1.11 | 0.40 |
| Luke Brennan | midfielder | 17 | 480 | 1.45 | 0 | -1.45 | 0.27 |
| Cooper Sanchez | midfielder | 27 | 1777 | 1.66 | 0 | -1.66 | 0.08 |
| Miguel Almirón | attacker | 23 | 1945 | 7.95 | 6 | -1.95 | 0.37 |
| Emmanuel Latte Lath | attacker | 14 | 908 | 4.23 | 2 | -2.23 | 0.42 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 49.9 | 64 | 38.1 | 23 | 46.5 | 67 | +20.5 |
| 2 | New England | 30 | 45.4 | 49 | 45 | 41 | 40.9 | 52 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 33.9 | 41 | 43.6 | 39 | 36.7 | 47 | +10.3 |
| 4 | Inter Miami | 30 | 58.3 | 73 | 49.4 | 51 | 46.6 | 55 | +8.4 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 47.3 | 53 | 52.7 | 45 | 39.7 | 47 | +7.3 |
| 6 | Dallas | 30 | 46.4 | 55 | 41.9 | 47 | 44.7 | 51 | +6.3 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 30 | 47.6 | 58 | 59.5 | 70 | 36.3 | 41 | +4.7 |
| 8 | Austin | 30 | 30.3 | 38 | 61.7 | 56 | 26.3 | 31 | +4.7 |
| 9 | St. Louis City | 30 | 47.1 | 56 | 38.2 | 41 | 46.9 | 51 | +4.1 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 54.6 | 52 | 44 | 44 | 46.7 | 48 | +1.3 |
| 11 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 47.2 | 48 | 43.1 | 33 | 44.8 | 46 | +1.2 |
| 12 | Toronto | 30 | 37.3 | 46 | 47.7 | 55 | 34.8 | 36 | +1.2 |
| 13 | LA Galaxy | 31 | 46.2 | 43 | 52.3 | 52 | 39.3 | 40 | +0.7 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 44 | 39 | 44.3 | 37 | 41.4 | 42 | +0.6 |
| 15 | SJ Earthquakes | 30 | 54.2 | 52 | 41 | 42 | 47.6 | 48 | +0.4 |
| 16 | New York RB | 30 | 49.4 | 39 | 56.5 | 56 | 37.8 | 36 | -1.8 |
| 17 | Cincinnati | 28 | 51.3 | 60 | 52.5 | 68 | 38.5 | 36 | -2.5 |
| 18 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 62.9 | 63 | 32.2 | 31 | 57.7 | 55 | -2.7 |
| 19 | Real Salt Lake | 30 | 41.9 | 45 | 44.7 | 48 | 39.1 | 36 | -3.1 |
| 20 | DC United | 29 | 44.4 | 37 | 51.6 | 51 | 36.1 | 33 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 60.6 | 61 | 41.8 | 48 | 51.4 | 46 | -5.4 |
| 22 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 43.8 | 51 | 48.3 | 56 | 39.8 | 34 | -5.8 |
| 23 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 45.5 | 41 | 35 | 41 | 45.5 | 39 | -6.5 |
| 24 | Sporting KC | 30 | 35.1 | 36 | 60.9 | 75 | 29 | 22 | -7 |
| 25 | New York City | 30 | 43.3 | 43 | 43.2 | 41 | 41.8 | 34 | -7.8 |
| 26 | San Diego | 30 | 48.9 | 53 | 49.1 | 56 | 43.7 | 34 | -9.7 |
| 27 | Atlanta United | 30 | 44.3 | 37 | 46.6 | 51 | 40.2 | 30 | -10.2 |
| 28 | Minnesota United | 30 | 52.1 | 47 | 49.3 | 55 | 44.3 | 34 | -10.3 |
| 29 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 44.1 | 44 | 35.7 | 47 | 43.1 | 32 | -11.1 |
| 30 | CF Montréal | 30 | 42.4 | 36 | 50.1 | 60 | 38 | 25 | -13 |