Al Najma xG 2025/2026

Al Najma xG Questions

Are Al Najma overperforming their xG this season?

No, Al Najma have taken 16 points over 34 Saudi Pro League games in 2025/2026, 9.44 fewer than the 25.44 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.

What is Al Najma's xG per game this season?

Al Najma create 0.85 expected goals (xG) per game over 34 Saudi Pro League games in 2025/2026, 28.73 in all, and have scored 32 goals from those chances, 3.27 more than that xG would expect.

What is Al Najma's xGA per game this season?

Al Najma allow 1.98 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 34 Saudi Pro League games in 2025/2026, 67.29 in all, and have conceded 76 goals from those chances, 8.71 more than that xGA would expect.

Who has the most xG for Al Najma this season?

Lázaro has the most expected goals (xG) for Al Najma over 34 Saudi Pro League games in 2025/2026, 6.69 xG in 25 appearances, and has scored 7 goals; Felippe Cardoso is next with 3.66 xG.

Al Najma expected goals 2025/2026: 2025/2026

Games: 34
Expected goals (xG): 28.73
Goals scored: 32
Goals minus xG: +3.27
Expected goals against (xGA): 67.29
Goals conceded: 76
xGA minus goals conceded: -8.71
Expected points (xPts): 25.44
Points: 16
Points minus xPts: -9.44
Verdict: A bit unlucky

Are Al Najma overperforming their expected goals?

Al Najma have taken 9.4 points fewer than their chances warranted over 34 games: +3.3 goals against their xG, and -8.7 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.

Al Najma results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
25/26	34	28.73	32	+3.27	67.29	76	-8.71	25.44	16	-9.44
Last 10	10	8.17	10	+1.83	20.94	22	-1.06	7.49	8	+0.51
Last 5	5	5.27	4	-1.27	8.72	7	+1.72	4.84	5	+0.16
Home	17	15.76	21	+5.24	28.44	36	-7.56	15.86	13	-2.86
Away	17	12.97	11	-1.97	38.85	40	-1.15	9.58	3	-6.58

Al Najma expected goals match by match, 2025/2026

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
20 May	Saudi Pro League	Al Shabab (H)	1-0	1.69	0.58	2.17	3	W
14 May	Saudi Pro League	Al Fateh (A)	2-0	0.63	1.84	0.57	0	L
9 May	Saudi Pro League	Al Hazm (H)	2-2	0.56	1.64	0.61	1	L
4 May	Saudi Pro League	Al Ettifaq (A)	0-0	1.14	2.14	0.79	1	L
28 Apr	Saudi Pro League	Al Khaleej (A)	3-1	1.25	2.52	0.70	0	L
23 Apr	Saudi Pro League	Al Taawoun (H)	1-2	0.87	0.81	1.38	0	W
11 Apr	Saudi Pro League	NEOM SC (H)	2-1	0.62	2.45	0.37	3	L
3 Apr	Saudi Pro League	Al Nassr (A)	5-2	0.62	4.30	0.10	0	L
12 Mar	Saudi Pro League	Damac FC (H)	1-3	0.77	1.69	0.74	0	L
6 Mar	Saudi Pro League	Al Hilal (A)	4-0	0.02	2.97	0.06	0	L
28 Feb	Saudi Pro League	Al Akhdoud (H)	1-3	1.82	2.42	1.07	0	L
25 Feb	Saudi Pro League	Al Nassr (H)	0-5	0.18	2.43	0.16	0	L
19 Feb	Saudi Pro League	Al Ahli (A)	4-1	0.61	3.45	0.18	0	L
14 Feb	Saudi Pro League	Al Kholood (H)	2-1	0.96	3.05	0.38	3	L
5 Feb	Saudi Pro League	Al-Fayha (A)	3-0	0.46	1.98	0.41	0	L
1 Feb	Saudi Pro League	Al Ittihad (A)	1-0	0.68	1.24	0.91	0	L
28 Jan	Saudi Pro League	Al Riyadh (H)	1-1	1.74	0.47	2.28	1	W
25 Jan	Saudi Pro League	Al-Qadsiah (H)	1-3	0.89	1.64	0.86	0	L
20 Jan	Saudi Pro League	Al Shabab (A)	0-0	0.50	1.53	0.61	1	L
16 Jan	Saudi Pro League	Al Fateh (H)	1-1	1.40	1.03	1.64	1	W
12 Jan	Saudi Pro League	Al Hazm (A)	3-2	0.81	2.72	0.39	0	L
8 Jan	Saudi Pro League	Al Ettifaq (H)	3-4	1.64	2.18	1.08	0	L
2 Jan	Saudi Pro League	Al Khaleej (H)	2-2	0.90	2.40	0.54	1	L
29 Dec	Saudi Pro League	Al Taawoun (A)	1-0	1.20	2.55	0.65	0	L
25 Dec	Saudi Pro League	NEOM SC (A)	2-1	1.31	1.74	1.10	0	L
22 Nov	Saudi Pro League	Damac FC (A)	0-0	0.99	1.43	1.05	1	L
7 Nov	Saudi Pro League	Al Hilal (H)	2-4	0.32	2.07	0.30	0	L
31 Oct	Saudi Pro League	Al Akhdoud (A)	2-1	0.59	1.88	0.53	0	L
23 Oct	Saudi Pro League	Al Ahli (H)	0-1	0.19	1.34	0.43	0	L
17 Oct	Saudi Pro League	Al Kholood (A)	5-1	1.06	2.70	0.53	0	L

Al Najma players: goals against expected goals, 2025/2026

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Rakan Al-Tulayhi	midfielder	32	1521	1.56	4	+2.44	0.09
Samir Caetano	defender	30	2633	0.84	3	+2.16	0.03
Mohammed Al Aqal	attacker	5	161	0.33	1	+0.67	0.18
Ali Jasim	attacker	24	1621	3.37	4	+0.63	0.19
Felippe Cardoso	attacker	14	1228	3.66	4	+0.34	0.27
Lázaro	attacker	25	2021	6.69	7	+0.31	0.30
Nasser Al-Haleel	defender	25	1828	0.77	1	+0.23	0.04
Bilal Boutobba	attacker	28	2067	2.83	3	+0.17	0.12
David Tijanic	midfielder	24	1829	2.18	2	-0.18	0.11
Hisham Al-Dubais	attacker	18	399	0.58	0	-0.58	0.13
Mohammed Al-Fatil	defender	11	771	0.61	0	-0.61	0.07
Romell Quioto	attacker	9	569	0.73	0	-0.73	0.12

Saudi Pro League 2025/2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Al Ahli	34	60.4	71	26.8	25	65.7	81	+15.3
2	Al-Qadsiah	34	68	83	38.5	34	64.3	77	+12.7
3	Al Nassr	34	77.6	91	27.9	28	74.3	86	+11.7
4	Al Ettifaq	34	42.5	51	61.3	55	39.6	50	+10.4
5	Al Hilal	34	81.7	85	25.3	27	76.4	84	+7.6
6	Al Taawoun	34	48.5	59	49.2	46	46.9	53	+6.1
7	Al Ittihad	34	54.8	55	46.3	48	51.4	55	+3.6
8	Al Hazm	34	43.6	38	49.8	57	42.8	42	-0.8
9	Al-Fayha	34	36.4	41	47.1	54	40.6	38	-2.6
10	Al Kholood	34	34.8	39	56	61	35.7	33	-2.7
11	NEOM SC	34	47.5	43	44.1	48	50	45	-5
12	Damac FC	34	31	32	50.5	55	35.3	29	-6.3
13	Al Fateh	34	47.7	41	52.6	55	43.9	37	-6.9
14	Al Akhdoud	34	28.5	27	66.9	70	27.4	20	-7.4
15	Al Khaleej	34	47.4	54	48	62	45.9	37	-8.9
16	Al Riyadh	34	43.2	35	58.5	63	38.9	30	-8.9
17	Al Shabab	34	50.7	44	56.9	57	44.2	35	-9.2
18	Al Najma	34	28.7	32	67.3	76	25.4	16	-9.4