Player prop edges on shots, shots on target and fouls, ranked by expected return.
Updated 11 October 2026
Bookmakers price player props with less precision than match odds, which is where the edges live. We only publish them in the markets where our own projections have earned the right to be trusted. This page shows shots, shots on target and fouls committed. They are officially recorded stats, priced deeply enough for us to strip the bookmaker's margin out of the odds and compare like for like. Markets whose settled record does not support them are withheld rather than padded onto the page, and any market that starts losing is pulled automatically. Every pick shows the model's probability, the market's margin-free probability and the expected return per unit staked at the price on offer. That return is what the list is ranked by, because the same edge is worth far more on a 4.00 shot than a 1.20 one. Picks require the player to be in the expected XI, since a no-start voids the bet. The model's number also has to agree with the player's recent hit rate before a pick qualifies. For the empirical view of the same markets, last-six-game hit rates rather than the projection, see Form Edges.
| Player | Team | Match | Kick-off (UK) | Stat | Star rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Luiz | Aston Villa | Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe | Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | Shots | 4.3 of 5 |
| Ross Barkley | Aston Villa | Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe | Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | Shots | 3.9 of 5 |
| Johan Manzambi | Aston Villa | Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe | Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | Shots | 3.5 of 5 |
| Matty Cash | Aston Villa | Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe | Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | Shots | 3.2 of 5 |
| Douglas Luiz | Aston Villa | Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe | Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | Shots on target | 2.8 of 5 |
| Tyrone Mings | Aston Villa | Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe | Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | Shots | 2.8 of 5 |
| Victor Lindelöf | Aston Villa | Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe | Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 | Shots | 2.5 of 5 |
The best player prop this week is the one pick rated four stars or more among the 10 Statz picks on 14 October, on shots, shots on target and fouls across one match in the Champions League.
Every one of the 10 Statz player props this week has a positive edge: our probability minus the bookmaker's, after the margin is stripped from the price using the whole ladder for that player and stat. Our projection is shrunk toward the market first, because a big disagreement with the price is usually model error.
Statz shows player props on shots, shots on target and fouls only (9, 1 and 0 of this week's 10 picks), because they are officially recorded and priced deeply enough to analyse. Goals and cards were measurably unprofitable and stay withheld until their settled record supports them.
A player prop is void at most bookmakers when the player does not start, so the 10 Statz picks this week are limited to players in the expected or confirmed XI once a lineup is out. Our own record settles a no-start the same way, as a void rather than a loss.
Because two percentage points of edge on a 1.20 shot and two on a 5.00 shot are not the same bet. Expected return converts the edge into what it is worth per unit staked, which is the only ranking that treats short and long prices consistently.
Statz compares player prop prices at three bookmakers this week, Ladbrokes, Coral and Bet365, and each of the 10 picks shows the best available price with a direct betslip link where the feed supports one.
Yes, 1+, 2+ and 3+ are projected for each player and stat, and the deeper lines are treated more cautiously: a projection error moves the probability of three or more far more than it moves one or more.
The Statz player prop board was last updated on 11 October 2026: bookmaker prices refresh several times a day and the page follows them, while the projections behind its 10 picks are recalculated daily.