Updated 11 November 2026.
Senegal face Sudan in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications group stage on Thursday 12 November 2026, kicking off at 7pm UK. The home side are 2nd in their group on 4 points from two games, with Sudan 3rd on 3 points. We project Senegal for 2.66 goals to Sudan's 0.37, and give the hosts an 86% chance of the win.
Senegal have won once and drawn once in qualifying, beating Ethiopia 1-0 away and drawing 1-1 with Mozambique. That has them 2nd in the qualifying group with two goals scored and one conceded, so 0.5 against per game. They kept a clean sheet in one of the two, and both teams scored in the other.
Before the qualifiers, their last three games were World Cup matches: a 3-2 loss to Belgium on 1 July, a 5-0 win over Iraq and a 3-2 defeat to Norway. Across the two qualifiers they have averaged 3.5 shots on target and 3 cards a game. Senegal have won two of their last five games in all competitions, and four of their last ten.
Sudan are 3rd in the group after a 1-0 home win over Ethiopia and a 4-1 defeat at Mozambique. Before the qualifiers they drew 0-0 with Lebanon and 0-0 with Qatar in friendlies. In the two qualifiers they have conceded 2 goals a game and managed 2 shots on target a game, and they have won one of their last five games in all competitions. Both sides scored exactly once in each of their two qualifiers. Senegal won the last meeting, 3-1 at the Africa Cup of Nations in January.
Senegal possible starting lineup:
Y. Diouf; Sy, Koulibaly, Niakhaté, E. H. M. Diouf; Gueye, Camara; Sarr, Ndiaye, Mbaye; Jackson
Sudan possible starting lineup:
Mustafa; Barglan, Kuku, Karshom, Tabanja; Khidir, Taifour; Omer, Abdallah, Hussein; Eisa
Nicolas Jackson leads the Senegal line in our possible starting lineup, and we project the hosts for 2.66 goals and 5.80 shots on target. Iliman Ndiaye and Ibrahim Mbaye sit behind him in the attacking midfield positions.
Kalidou Koulibaly anchors a back line that has conceded once in two qualifiers.
For Sudan, Mo Eisa leads the attack in our possible starting lineup, and we project the visitors for 0.37 goals and 1.80 shots on target.
Senegal are 1.11 to win with midnite, the draw is 7.50 and Sudan are 19.00. In the goals markets, over 1.5 goals is 1.14, over 2.5 goals is 1.44 and both teams to score is 2.63.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Senegal win | 1.11 | 86% |
| Draw | 7.50 | 11% |
| Sudan win | 19.00 | 3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 58% |
| Both teams to score | 2.63 | 29% |
We predict Senegal 2-0, the likeliest single scoreline at 17%, with 3-0 and 1-0 next. We give Senegal a 69% chance of a clean sheet and Sudan a 7% chance of one, with Sudan projected for just 0.37 goals, so both teams to score is rated at 29%. Over 1.5 goals carries an 81% chance and over 2.5 goals 58%. We also project Senegal for 14.68 total shots and 5.94 corners, against 5.07 shots and 3.56 corners for Sudan.
Senegal vs Sudan in the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications kicks off at 19:00 UK on Thursday 12 November 2026. It is a group stage match, with Senegal at home.
Statz predicts a 2-0 Senegal win in this Africa Cup of Nations qualifier, the most likely scoreline at 17%. We give Senegal an 86% chance of winning, an 11% chance of a draw and 3% for Sudan.
Senegal are strong favourites in this Africa Cup of Nations qualifier, priced at 1.11 with midnite, and our model gives them 86% to win. Sudan are 19.00 to win and the draw is 7.50.
We give both teams to score in Senegal vs Sudan in the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers a 29% chance, with Sudan projected for only 0.37 goals. The best price is 2.63, while over 1.5 goals at 1.14 carries an 81% model chance.
Senegal are 2nd in their Africa Cup of Nations qualifying group with 4 points from 2 games, while Sudan are 3rd on 3 points after one win and one loss in the 2026 qualifiers.
Predicted lineups for Senegal vs Sudan in the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications on Thursday 12 November 2026: Senegal may start Y. Diouf; Sy, Koulibaly, Niakhaté, E. H. M. Diouf; Gueye, Camara; Sarr, Ndiaye, Mbaye; Jackson. Sudan may start Mustafa; Barglan, Kuku, Karshom, Tabanja; Khidir, Taifour; Omer, Abdallah, Hussein; Eisa.