Beşiktaş host Crystal Palace at the Beşiktaş Stadium on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in a Europa League league-stage game between two sides who score plenty and concede their share. The hosts sit 4th of 36 with two wins from two, while Palace are 15th with one win and one defeat. Both have scored at least six goals in the competition already, so this should not be a quiet night.
Beşiktaş have six points from two Europa League games and a goal difference of plus four. They opened with a 4-1 home win over Marseille and followed it with a 3-2 win at Hoffenheim. Domestic form has been less steady: they lost 2-0 at Trabzonspor on Monday, and before that beat Kocaelispor 2-1 and lost 3-2 at Amed SK. They have kept a clean sheet in 63% of their games and concede only 0.5 goals a game.
Crystal Palace have been more volatile. They put four past Lech Poznań in their opener, then lost 3-2 at Lyon last week. On Sunday they were beaten 5-0 at Brighton, which came after a 3-1 home win over Forest and a goalless draw at Leeds. In Europe they average 3 goals a game, the 3rd most in the competition, and both of their games have gone over 2.5 goals.
Palace average 5 shots on target a game.
Beşiktaş possible starting lineup:
Nübel; Murillo, Agbadou, Topçu, Ouattara; Ndidi, Miretti; Olaitan, Trossard, Fakili; Oh
Crystal Palace possible starting lineup:
Benítez; Richards, Canvot, Disasi, Mitchell; Wharton, Timber; Sarr, Pino, Mingueza; Strand Larsen
Hyeon-gyu Oh has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, and is 1.30 at bet365 to do it again.
Leandro Trossard has taken at least three shots in each of his last five, and 2+ shots is 1.30 at bet365.
Ismaïla Sarr has had two or more shots in four of his last five, including six and five in two of them, and 2+ shots is 1.33 at bet365 and Midnite.
Emmanuel Agbadou has made two or more tackles in four of his last five games, and 2+ tackles is 1.73 at bet365. Our model also ranks him the likeliest player in the match to commit a foul, with 1+ at 1.62.
Chris Richards is a longer shot: our model ranks him the likeliest player in the match to get a shot on target, and 1+ is 3.75.
Our model has the two sides level on 38% each, with the draw on 24%. Beşiktaş are 2.10 with bet365, Palace 3.25 with bet365 and the draw 3.80 with Midnite. Goals look likely: both teams to score is 1.50 and over 2.5 goals is 1.57, both with bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş win | 2.10 (bet365) | 38% |
| Draw | 3.80 (Midnite) | 24% |
| Crystal Palace win | 3.25 (bet365) | 38% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 62% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 11%. A 2-1 either way is not far behind, and a draw is firmly in play. Our model projects 1.61 goals for Beşiktaş and 1.60 for Palace, and a high-scoring night suits the shot and tackle angles above.