Updated 4 November 2026.
Crystal Palace host TSG Hoffenheim at Selhurst Park on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 17:45 UK, in the Europa League league stage. Palace have scored 8 goals in three European games, and all three have gone over 2.5 goals. Hoffenheim arrive with the 3rd most corners and the 3rd most fouls per game of any side in the competition. Both clubs lost on Saturday.
Palace sit 15th in the Europa League table with 4 points from three games, one win, one draw and one defeat, and a goal difference of plus 3 (8 scored, 5 conceded). Their goals-for average of 2.67 a game is the 3rd most in the competition. They have also conceded 1.67 a game, the 32nd most.
Domestic form has been rough. Palace lost 2-0 at Spurs on Saturday and 5-0 at Brighton on 18 October, and they went down 2-0 at home to Newcastle in between. The bright spot was a 1-0 win at Fulham in the Carabao Cup, and in Europe they drew 2-2 away at Beşiktaş. Of their last ten games they have won three.
Hoffenheim are 23rd on 3 points, having won one and lost two. In Europe they lost 3-2 at home to Beşiktaş and won 3-0 at home to Lyon seven days later. They followed that with a 3-0 home win against Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, before losing 2-0 at Bremen on Saturday.
Hoffenheim average 20.33 fouls a game, the 3rd most, and 3.67 cards, the 4th most. They also win 8.67 corners a game, the 3rd most. Palace average 11.67 fouls a game, the 30th fewest. Both have kept a clean sheet in a third of their games.
Crystal Palace possible starting lineup:
Benítez; Richards, Canvot, Disasi; Khalaili, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell; Pino, McNeil; Mateta
TSG Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Abraha, Kabak, Rots, Machida; Avdullahu, Burger, Prass; Daghim, Kramaric, Lemperle
Ozan Kabak has committed 3+ fouls in each of Hoffenheim's three European games, averaging 4 a game, and is 3.30 at midnite to make it four in a row.
Leon Avdullahu has made 3+ tackles in all three games at 3.7 a game, which ranks 4th in the competition, and he is 2.50 at bet365 to do it again. He has also had a shot in each match and is 1.95 at ladbrokes for another.
Yéremy Pino has had a shot on target in all three of Palace's matches and is 1.70 at coral to keep it going.
Chris Richards has had at least one shot in three straight games and is 1.85 at ladbrokes.
Axel Disasi has made at least one tackle in three straight games and is 1.40 at bet365. He has tackled in all of his last five matches.
We back Palace to win, a 46% chance in our model, and the best price is 1.85 at bet365. A draw is 24% and Hoffenheim 30%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Palace win | 1.85 (bet365) | 46% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 24% |
| Hoffenheim win | 3.80 (ladbrokes) | 30% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 62% |
We expect 1.78 goals from Palace and 1.41 from Hoffenheim. 1-1 is the likeliest score at 11%, so a draw is in play, though we make Palace the likelier winners, and 2-1 is next at 9%. Palace are projected 15.23 shots against Hoffenheim's 11.36, and Hoffenheim are projected 2.06 yellow cards to Palace's 1.64.
Our bet builder is Axel Disasi 1+ tackles (1.40), Daichi Kamada 1+ shots (1.36), Wouter Burger 1+ shots (1.40) and Koki Machida 1+ tackles (1.22). Burger has had a shot in four of his last five and Machida has made a tackle in four of five.
Statz prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 TSG Hoffenheim.
Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim kicks off at 17:45 UK on Thursday 5 November 2026 at Selhurst Park, in the Europa League league stage. Palace are 15th of 36 on 4 points after 3 games, and Hoffenheim are 23rd on 3 points.
Our model predicts a 1-1 draw for Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim in the 2026 Europa League, an 11% chance for that exact score. We make Palace the slightly likelier winners at 46%, with a draw at 24%.
Crystal Palace are favourites at 1.85 with bet365 for the Europa League league stage match on 5 November 2026, and our model gives them a 46% chance of winning, against 30% for Hoffenheim.
Our model gives a 63% chance of both teams scoring when Crystal Palace host Hoffenheim in the 2026 Europa League, and 62% for over 2.5 goals. Palace's three European games this season have all gone over 2.5 goals.
Crystal Palace are 15th of 36 in the 2026 Europa League table with 4 points from 3 games, while TSG Hoffenheim are 23rd with 3 points from 3 games, going into their league stage meeting at Selhurst Park.
Ozan Kabak has committed 3+ fouls in 3 straight Europa League games for Hoffenheim in 2026, averaging 4 a game, and is 3.30 at midnite to do it again against Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park.
Crystal Palace's predicted 2026 Europa League lineup against Hoffenheim is Benítez; Richards, Canvot, Disasi; Khalaili, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell; Pino, McNeil; Mateta. Hoffenheim are predicted Baumann; Abraha, Kabak, Rots, Machida; Avdullahu, Burger, Prass; Daghim, Kramaric, Lemperle.