Celje welcome Omonia Nicosia to Stadion Z'dežele on Thursday 15 October, with kick-off at 17:45 UK, in a Europa League league-stage game that the bookmakers see as close to a coin flip. Celje are 2.50 at bet365, Omonia are 2.80 and the draw is 3.40 at Ladbrokes. The hosts have no points to show for their first outing, while the Cypriot side beat Celta 1-0 on matchday one.
For Omonia it is a chance to back up that result with another win.
Celje sit 31st of 36 in the Europa League table with no points from one game, after a 2-0 defeat at Leverkusen on 16 September. Their form before that was patchy: a 1-2 home loss to Slovan ended their Champions League qualifying run, after a 1-1 draw in the first leg. Before that came a 2-0 home win over Ararat, and they had lost the first leg in Yerevan 2-1. They have lost three of their last five.
Omonia are 15th with three points, thanks to the 1-0 home win over Celta. Their record across the last five is three wins, a draw and a defeat: a 4-2 home win against Sint-Truiden followed a 1-0 loss in Belgium, and they got past Red Imps with a 1-0 home win after a 1-1 draw away.
Omonia have the sturdier defence, with a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games.
Celje possible starting lineup:
Leban; Sirvys, Bejger, Tutyškinas; Tičić, Zabukovnik, Avdyli; Verbic, Seslar, Dukuly; Kucys
Omonia Nicosia possible starting lineup:
Fabiano; Duverne, Satka, Coulibaly, Balkovec; Maric, Andreou; Montnor, Costa, Tankovic; Diony
Kucys has had two or more shots in four of his last five games, with a best of three, and averages 1.8 a game. He is 1.17 at bet365 for two or more shots.
Andreou has had at least one shot in four of his last five games and is 1.40 at bet365 to do it again.
The defender Tutyškinas has committed a foul in each of his last five games, 1.8 a game on average, and is 1.25 at Midnite for one or more.
Sirvys is 3.50 for a shot on target, a price our model rates better than the market does.
The Omonia right-back Duverne is 3.75 for a shot on target, and our model likes that one too.
The bookmakers lean marginally towards Celje at 2.50 with bet365, with Omonia at 2.80 and the draw at 3.40. Goals look likely: both teams to score is 1.67 at bet365, over 1.5 goals is 1.29 at Midnite and over 2.5 is 1.80 at bet365. Referee Elçin Məsiyev takes charge of this game and averaged two yellow cards in his one appearance this season.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Celje win | 2.50 (bet365) | - |
| Draw | 3.40 (Ladbrokes) | - |
| Omonia win | 2.80 (bet365) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | - |
This is a tight game between two sides with plenty to prove. Home advantage could tip it Celje's way, but Omonia are the better-organised side and arrive with a win behind them. We expect a narrow scoreline, with a draw very much in play.