Lech Poznań are next to bottom and Bayer 04 Leverkusen are in the top eight when the two meet at the Enea stadion on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 17:45 UK. The hosts sit 35th of 36 in the Europa League table with no points after a 4-0 defeat at Palace, while Leverkusen are 8th on three points from a 2-0 win over Celje.
Lech arrive in far better shape at home than their European record suggests, and Leverkusen are the side the bookmakers expect to win. The question is how much Lech can lean on a scoring run that includes a 5-1 and a 4-1 league win.
Lech Poznań have lost only twice in their last ten games, and one of those was the heavy defeat on matchday one. They answered it by thrashing Radomiak, and last time out they won 4-1 at Śląsk Wrocław. Before that came a narrow loss at Górnik Zabrze and a 1-0 home win over Raków.
Lech average 3 goals and 7.4 shots on target a game, and have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.
Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last four, the latest a 4-3 thriller won at Mainz on Saturday. That run includes a 2-0 home win over RB Leipzig and a 2-2 draw at Augsburg, and they opened their Europa League campaign with a 2-0 win over Celje without conceding.
Lech Poznań possible starting lineup:
Lis; Pereira, Monka, Yegbe, Gurgul; Berggren, Rodríguez; Håkans, Palma, Sayyadmanesh; Ishak
Bayer 04 Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Vázquez, Medina, Tapsoba, Gutiérrez; Andrich, García; Diaby, Tillman, Terrier; Schick
Mikael Ishak is Lech's reference point up front. He has had at least two shots in each of his last five games, with 3, 4, 3, 2 and 2, an average of 2.8.
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh has committed at least one foul in each of his last five, including five in one game. He is 1.40 at Ladbrokes to do it again.
Malik Tillman has fouled at least once in five straight games too, 1.50 at Ladbrokes, and he is the Leverkusen player to pair with Ishak in a two-leg shots and fouls double that comes to 2.56.
Patrik Schick leads the line, but the longer-priced pick is centre-back Loïc Badé, whom our model rates higher than the books do: he is 1.57 for a shot and 3.25 for a shot on target.
We back Leverkusen to win at 1.67 with Ladbrokes. Lech Poznań are 5.00 at bet365 and the draw is 4.33 at Ladbrokes. Goals look likely: over 2.5 is 1.48 and both teams to score is 1.53, both at Ladbrokes, and over 1.5 is 1.14 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznań win | 5.00 (bet365) | n/a |
| Draw | 4.33 (Ladbrokes) | n/a |
| Leverkusen win | 1.67 (Ladbrokes) | n/a |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (Ladbrokes) | n/a |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 (Ladbrokes) | n/a |
Leverkusen have the better results of the two, but Lech's scoring form and home ground should earn them a goal. Our prediction is Lech Poznań 1-2 Leverkusen.