Union Saint-Gilloise host Real Sociedad at King Power at Den Dreef on Thursday 15 October, with kick-off at 17:45 UK time. The Belgian side arrive with a perfect start to the Europa League league stage, while the Spaniards are still looking for their first points after a home defeat on matchday one.
Union beat Plzeň 3-0 away and sit 5th of 36 on three points, with a goal difference of +3. Real Sociedad lost 2-1 to Bournemouth at home and are 22nd, which makes this an early test of whether the hosts can build a real push towards the top eight. It is also a meeting of two sides who have scored freely in recent weeks.
Union have lost once in their last ten across all competitions. They won 3-2 at Charleroi, hammered Lommel SK 5-0 at home, then went to Plzeň and won 3-0 in the Europa League opener. A 2-0 win at Antwerp followed before a 1-1 draw with OH Leuven on Sunday, a result that ended a run of four straight wins.
The Plzeň game was the standout: 13 shots on target, the most of any side on the opening matchday, and no goals conceded.
Real Sociedad's form is more mixed but has picked up. They won 3-2 at Elche, lost 3-0 at home to Atlético, then went down 2-1 to Bournemouth in the Europa League. Since then they have won 3-2 at Valencia and 3-2 at home to Deportivo on Sunday, so they come here with two wins on the bounce in La Liga.
The referee, Goga Kikacheishvili, has averaged 2 yellow cards in his one game this season.
Union Saint-Gilloise possible starting lineup:
Koffi; Sylla, Kricfalusi, Garcia, Patris; Schoofs, Zeneli, Olaru; Smith, Biondic, Mofokeng
Real Sociedad possible starting lineup:
Marrero; Fort, MartÃn, Sarr, Gómez; Herrera, Turrientes; Guedes, Sucic, Barrenetxea; Oyarzabal
Mateo Biondic has had at least two shots in each of his last five games, with 4, 3, 4, 3 and 2, an average of 3.2 per game. Two or more shots is 1.30 at bet365.
Relebohile Mofokeng has put a shot on target in four of his last five, with three on target in two of those games. A shot on target is 1.57 at bet365.
Mikel Oyarzabal is Sociedad's most reliable route to a shot on target, with a shot on target in four of his last five games. He is 1.30 at bet365 for at least one.
Louis Patris has committed at least two fouls in each of his last five games and is 1.44 at Ladbrokes to commit at least one.
Ondrej Kricfalusi is a longer-priced option. Our model has him likelier to take two or more shots than the market suggests, and that is 4.33 at the best price, with a shot on target at 3.75.
We back Union Saint-Gilloise to win, and they are 2.40 at bet365. Our model makes the hosts the most likely winners at 46%, with Real Sociedad at 29% and the draw at 26%. A draw is in play too, with 1-1 the single likeliest scoreline.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Union SG to win | 2.40 (bet365) | 46% |
| Draw | 3.75 (Midnite) | 26% |
| Sociedad to win | 2.80 (bet365) | 29% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (Ladbrokes) | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 (Midnite) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 (Ladbrokes) | 54% |
We project 1.62 goals for Union and 1.24 for Sociedad, and we predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest score, though we make Union slightly more likely to win. 2-1 and 1-0 to the hosts are the next most likely scores.
For a player-led angle, a four-leg builder of Biondic two or more shots, Patris one or more fouls, Oyarzabal a shot on target and Mofokeng a shot on target comes out at about 3.19 combined.