NEC Nijmegen host Levski Sofia at the Goffertstadion on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 8pm UK, and both clubs are still hunting a first Europa League point. NEC were beaten 5-0 by Juventus on matchday one, Levski lost 1-0 at home to Salzburg, and the loser here will start to feel the league stage slipping away.
The bookmakers have the Dutch side as favourites, and NEC's home games have brought goals: their last two there finished 2-2 and 1-1.
NEC Nijmegen are 36th of 36 in the Europa League table with no points and a goal difference of minus 5, the result of that heavy defeat in Turin. At home they have been tougher to beat: 1-1 with GA Eagles and 2-2 with Excelsior in the Eredivisie, either side of a 3-0 defeat at SC Cambuur. Their latest outing was a 1-1 draw at Ajax, which makes three draws in their last four.
Levski Sofia are 27th, also pointless, after the 1-0 home defeat to Salzburg. That is a respectable scoreline for a first league-stage game. The Bulgarian side did lose 4-0 at AEK Athens in the Champions League qualifiers, but before that they won both legs against Kairat, 1-0 away and 1-0 at home, and held AEK to a 0-0 draw in the first leg. The question is the other end, where they had the fewest shots on target of any side on the opening matchday.
NEC Nijmegen possible starting lineup:
Crettaz; Brás, Schuurs, Storm, Kers; Nejašmić, Lebreton, Fonville; Chery, Tadić, Linssen
Levski Sofia possible starting lineup:
Vutsov; Aldair, Dimitrov, Makoun, Maicon; Serginho, Trdin, Bala; Centelles, Oko-Flex, Reinaldo
Bryan Linssen is NEC's most reliable fouler. Linssen has committed at least one foul in each of his last five games, and he is 1.25 at Midnite to do it again.
Deveron Fonville has the same record from midfield. Fonville has fouled at least once in five straight and is 1.36 at Midnite.
Everton Bala is Levski's most consistent shooter. Bala has had two or more shots in four of his last five games, averaging 2.2 a game, and is 1.33 at bet365 to manage two again.
Kristian Dimitrov comes through in our player projections. Dimitrov is 2.20 for a shot and 5.00 for a shot on target, and our model rates him likelier to do both than those prices suggest.
Christian Makoun is a longer shot. Makoun is 4.50 for a shot on target and 21.00 for two.
The bookmakers make NEC Nijmegen favourites at 1.91 with Midnite, with the draw at 3.80 (Ladbrokes) and Levski Sofia at 4.33 (bet365).
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen to win | 1.91 (Midnite) | - |
| Draw | 3.80 (Ladbrokes) | - |
| Levski Sofia to win | 4.33 (bet365) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | - |
Neither side has scored in the league stage yet, but the market expects goals, with both teams to score at 1.67 and over 2.5 at 1.73 with bet365. Levski's defence has held up better than NEC's, but a team that managed the fewest shots on target on the opening matchday will struggle to take advantage of a leaky back line. The interest is in the player markets: Linssen and Fonville for fouls on the home side, and Bala and Dimitrov for shots on the away side.