Ferencvárosi welcome Viktoria Plzeň to the Groupama Aréna on Thursday 15 October, with kick-off at 8pm UK. It is a Europa League league-stage match between a Hungarian side sitting 6th of 36 and a Czech club in 34th, and the two come in with very different opening nights.
Ferencvárosi won 3-1 at Celtic on matchday one. Plzeň lost 3-0 at home to Union SG and have yet to score in the competition's main phase.
Ferencvárosi have three points from one game and a goal difference of +2, and they are in the best run of the two. They have won eight of their last ten in all competitions. The latest was the 3-1 win at Celtic, and before that they beat Trabzonspor 4-0 at home and 1-0 away to reach this stage.
The defence has been the foundation: they concede 0.67 goals a game and have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their matches, while scoring 2.11 a game.
Plzeň are 34th with no points and a goal difference of -3. Their league-phase position comes from that 0-3 defeat to Union SG, which followed a 3-0 loss in Belgrade and a 5-1 home win in the second leg of their qualifier. They have drawn six of their last ten and lost two.
Plzeň concede 2.33 goals a game and have not kept a clean sheet this campaign. At the other end they have been busy, with 7.33 shots on target a game.
Ferencvárosi possible starting lineup:
Varga; Gómez, Nagy, Raemaekers, Cadu; Zachariassen, Corbu, Arzani; Bagi, Bamidele, O. Nagy
Viktoria Plzeň possible starting lineup:
Baier; Paliscak, Vavro, Spáčil, Pirgić; Memic, Souaré, Hrosovsky; Sojka, Visinsky, Adu
Kristoffer Zachariassen has had at least two shots in each of his last five games, with 4, 2, 3, 3 and 2, an average of 2.8. He is 1.29 at bet365 to take two or more again.
Prince Adu has had a shot on target in four of his last five, including three in one game. He is 1.33 at bet365 for one or more here.
K. Spáčil is a defender who finds his way into the shot markets for Plzeň. He is 1.57 for a shot and 3.25 for a shot on target, and our model ranks him far likelier than those prices suggest.
Ferencvárosi's midfield has been picking up fouls, too. Cadu and Ádám Nagy have each committed at least one in each of their last five games, and they are 1.36 and 1.22 at Midnite to do it again. Referee Damian Sylwestrzak has averaged 3 yellow cards and 24.67 fouls in his three games this season.
The bookmakers make Ferencvárosi the favourites at 2.00 with Midnite, with the draw at 3.80 and a Plzeň win at 3.70, both at bet365. The goals markets point to an open game: over 2.5 goals is 1.67 at bet365 and both teams to score is 1.60 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Ferencvárosi win | 2.00 (Midnite) | - |
| Draw | 3.80 (bet365) | - |
| Plzeň win | 3.70 (bet365) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.60 (Ladbrokes) | - |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (bet365) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | - |
Our prediction is a 2-1 win for Ferencvárosi. They have the better form and the stronger defensive numbers, and Plzeň's shooting volume gives them a route to a goal. The bet builder for this one pairs Zachariassen to have two or more shots, Nagy and Cadu to commit a foul each and Adu to land a shot on target, at a combined 3.16.