Benfica host Celtic at the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in the Europa League league stage. The hosts opened with a 2-0 win away at AC Milan. Celtic lost 3-1 at home to Ferencvárosi on the same night, and the gap between those two starts is the story here.
Benfica have won nine of their last ten. Celtic have won three of their last five and lost the other two.
Benfica sit 7th of 36 after one game, with 3 points. The win at AC Milan came in the middle of a good run: they beat Moreirense 4-0 and Gil Vicente 3-1 in September, lost 3-1 at Porto, then bounced back with a 2-0 home win over Vitória SC on Sunday. Only that Porto game interrupts nine wins in their last ten.
Celtic are 28th with no points. The 3-1 defeat to Ferencvárosi was followed by a 1-0 home loss to Rangers, before a 2-0 win at Motherwell on Sunday steadied things. Before that they won 1-0 at St. Johnstone and 2-1 at St. Mirren.
Their European opener showed a side that gets opened up: three goals conceded, with both teams scoring.
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Trubin; Banjaqui, Araújo, Circati, El Karouani; Aursnes, Palhinha; Lukébakio, Sudakov, Schjelderup; Durán
Celtic possible starting lineup:
Sinisalo; Donovan, Scales, Murray, Tierney; McGregor, Baur; Tounekti, Nygren, Camilo Durán; Høgh
João Palhinha has committed a foul in each of his last five games and is 1.57 at bet365 to make it six.
Georgiy Sudakov is 1.80 to commit a foul, a price our model ranks as far likelier than the bookmakers do, and Jhon Durán is 1.67 for the same.
Kieran Tierney is 2.25 for a shot, and our model rates him Celtic's likeliest shooter.
Liam Scales has made at least one tackle in each of his last five, with 3, 1, 1, 3 and 2 in those games, and is 1.22 to do it again.
We back Benfica to win at 1.25 with bet365. Celtic are 11.00 and the draw is 6.50 with Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica win | 1.25 (bet365) | 75% |
| Draw | 6.50 (Ladbrokes) | 15% |
| Celtic win | 11.00 (bet365) | 10% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 70% |
Our model has Benfica scoring 2.7 goals and Celtic 0.9. Benfica's 2-0 is the likeliest single scoreline at about 10%, with 2-1 and 3-0 next at around 9% each. We predict Benfica 2-0 Celtic, and over 2.5 goals comes in at 70%.
Celtic scored in their only European match, and our model puts both teams scoring at 56%.