Jagiellonia Białystok and Ararat-Armenia meet at the Stadion Miejski on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 8pm UK, with both sides pointless after one Europa League game. Jagiellonia lost 2-1 away to Olympiacos, while Ararat were beaten 4-1 at home by Sparta Praha. Between them they sit 21st and 33rd in a 36-team table, and the pressure is on the hosts to turn a bad autumn around on home soil.
Jagiellonia are 21st with no points and a 2-1 defeat in Greece to show for the opening night. The wider picture is rougher: they have lost four in a row, the latest a 3-1 home loss to Górnik Zabrze, which followed a 3-1 home defeat by Legia Warszawa. Before that came the 2-1 loss at Olympiacos and a 2-0 defeat at Wisła Kraków. The last win was 2-1 over Śląsk Wrocław on 6 September.
Goals are not the problem, with both teams scoring in four of their last five games. The defence is: they have kept a clean sheet in only one of five.
Ararat sit 33rd after that 4-1 defeat to Sparta Praha. Their Champions League qualifier ended with a 2-0 defeat at Celje after a 2-1 home win in the first leg, and they then beat Universitatea Craiova 1-0 at home after a 1-1 draw in Romania. Away from home they have not scored more than once in their last three trips.
The Armenian side have kept clean sheets in a third of their matches.
Jagiellonia Białystok possible starting lineup:
Abramowicz; Wojtuszek, Konstantopoulos, Vital, Montóia; Conceição, Klynge, Kozlowski; Szmyt, Imaz, Prelec
Ararat-Armenia possible starting lineup:
João Victor; Junior Julio, Wilson, Malis, Grigoryan; Oliveira, Muradyan, Dias; Serobyan, Sandro, Banjaqui
Jesús Imaz leads the home side's shooting threat. He has put a shot on target in four of his last five games, averaging 1.4 per game, and bet365 have him at 1.25 for a shot on target here.
Bernardo Vital has committed a foul in each of his last five and averages two a game, with a high of three in a match. He is a defender who gets involved, and Midnite make him 1.25 to foul at least once again.
Artur Serobyan is Ararat's most reliable shooter. He has had at least one shot in all five recent games (3, 2, 3, 1, 2), and bet365 offer 1.44 on him doing it again.
Junior Julio is a longer shot. Our model rates his chance of two or more shots well above where the market pitches him, and he is 3.00 for one shot and 11.00 for two.
The bookmakers make Jagiellonia clear favourites at 1.40 with bet365, with the draw at 5.00 (Ladbrokes) and Ararat at 7.50 (bet365). Over 2.5 goals is 1.62 and both teams to score is 1.83 with Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia win | 1.40 (bet365) | - |
| Draw | 5.00 (Ladbrokes) | - |
| Ararat win | 7.50 (bet365) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 (Ladbrokes) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | - |
Jagiellonia have the better attack and the home ground, and Ararat have conceded four in their only league-stage game. A home win with goals at both ends looks the most natural reading. We predict a 2-1 win for Jagiellonia.
For a player-market angle, Imaz has hit a shot on target in four of his last five and is 1.25 to do it again, while Serobyan has had a shot in all of his last five and is 1.44. Together with Vital to commit a foul, those three legs combine at 1.62.