Celta de Vigo host Juventus at Abanca-Balaídos on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in a Europa League league-stage game between the table's top side and a team still looking for its first point. Juventus are 1st after a 5-0 win over NEC Nijmegen. Celta are 26th after a 1-0 defeat in Cyprus.
Celta de Vigo have no points from one game and sit 26th of 36 in the Europa League table. The opener was a 1-0 loss at Omonia on 16 September, and they have not scored in Europe yet. Their domestic form has been steadier: a 5-0 win over Racing on 19 September, then a goalless draw at Elche last Sunday. Celta have drawn five of their last ten games overall.
Juventus are 1st with three points and a goal difference of +5. The 5-0 win over NEC Nijmegen came with a clean sheet and put them top on goal difference.
Serie A has been less tidy. Juventus lost 3-2 at Sassuolo, beat Atalanta 2-0 and drew 1-1 at Cagliari last Sunday, so they arrive unbeaten in two.
Celta de Vigo possible starting lineup:
Radu; Cáceres, Lago, Marcos Alonso, Rueda; Moriba, Febas, Galán; Álvarez, Jutglà, Durán
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Vicario; Çelik, Gatti, Kelly, Cambiaso; Douglas Luiz, Sarr, McKennie; González, Alajbegovic, Kolo Muani
Pape Matar Sarr has had a shot in each of his last five games, averaging two per match, and one or more shots is 1.50 at bet365. Zeki Çelik has made at least two tackles in each of his last five, with 4, 2, 5, 2 and 2, and two or more tackles is 1.44 at bet365.
For Celta, Marcos Alonso has made a tackle in all of his last five, averaging 1.8, and one or more tackles is 1.25 at bet365. Ferran Jutglà has committed a foul in each of his last five and is 1.36 at bet365 for one or more, or 2.63 for two or more. Our model rates his foul markets as likelier than the prices suggest. Teammate Aleix Febas is 2.20 to commit two or more fouls, and our model ranks him the likeliest player in the game to do it.
Putting those four together gives a bet builder of Sarr, Çelik, Alonso and Jutglà at a combined 3.67.
We back Juventus, who are 2.15 at bet365 to win. Celta are 3.60 at bet365 and the draw is 3.40 at Coral.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Celta win | 3.60 (bet365) | 23% |
| Draw | 3.40 (Coral) | 26% |
| Juventus win | 2.15 (bet365) | 52% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 (Midnite) | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 (Midnite) | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 (bet365) | 49% |
1-1 is the likeliest score at 12%, though we make Juventus the most likely winners, and a draw is in play. Our projection is for Celta to score about one goal and Juventus about 1.63. Juventus have a 37% chance of a clean sheet, Celta 20%.
Referee Sander van der Eijk has taken one game this season, in which he showed an average of three yellow cards.