Olympique Marseille host Olympiacos F.C. at the Stade Vélodrome on Thursday 15 October, with kick-off at 8pm UK, and the hosts badly need something from this one. They sit 32nd of 36 in the Europa League table with no points after a 4-1 defeat at Beşiktaş, while Olympiacos are 13th on three points from a 2-1 win over Jagiellonia.
Marseille's one league-stage game so far was a high-scoring defeat, and Olympiacos' was a win in which both sides scored. Goals at both ends look likely again.
Marseille have had a rough few weeks. Before the trip to Troyes they had lost four in a row, including a 4-1 loss at Beşiktaş on matchday one and a 1-2 home defeat to PSG. Last Sunday's 2-0 win at Troyes ended that run and came with a clean sheet. In Europe they have scored once and conceded four.
Olympiacos arrive in better shape in Europe. Their 2-1 win over Jagiellonia came with 6 shots on target and 13 corners. Before that, their last European outings were a 2-1 defeat at NEC Nijmegen and a 0-0 draw at home in the Champions League qualifiers. Both clubs' league-stage games so far have seen both teams score and more than 2.5 goals, and Olympiacos should test a Marseille defence that has leaked four.
Olympique Marseille possible starting lineup:
de Lange; Weah, Egan-Riley, Aguerd, Garcia; Nnadi, Abdelli; Abdallah, Gomes, Harit; Maupay
Olympiacos F.C. possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Saliakas, Pirola, Retsos, Onyemaechi; Hezze, Freuler; Gelson Martins, Chiquinho, Jota Silva; Armando González
Armando González has put a shot on target in each of his last five games and is 1.22 at bet365 to do it again. Olympiacos team-mate Remo Freuler has had at least one shot in each of his last five and is 1.80 at bet365 for another.
For Marseille, Timothy Weah has also had a shot in each of his last five, with a best price of 1.29 at Midnite. Midfielder Angel Gomes has committed a foul in each of his last five and is 1.29 at Midnite to make it six. Among the longer prices, Tochukwu Nnadi is 3.25 for a shot on target, a market where our model rates him much higher than the bookmakers do.
Marseille are the bookmakers' favourites at 2.25 with bet365, with the draw at 3.60 (Midnite) and Olympiacos at 3.10 (bet365). The goals markets point to an open game, with both teams to score at 1.62 with Midnite and over 2.5 goals at 1.73 with bet365. Referee Michael Oliver averages 3 yellow cards a game this season.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille to win | 2.25 (bet365) | - |
| Draw | 3.60 (Midnite) | - |
| Olympiacos to win | 3.10 (bet365) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (Midnite) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | - |
Both sides' league-stage games so far have been open and we expect more goals at the Vélodrome. Marseille have the home crowd and the better odds, but Olympiacos scored twice against Jagiellonia and will fancy a goal here. We make it a narrow home win: Marseille 2-1 Olympiacos.