Dinamo Zagreb and Anderlecht meet at Stadion Maksimir on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 8pm UK, with both clubs still hunting their first win of the Europa League league stage. Dinamo have a point from a goalless draw in Be'er Sheva, while Anderlecht lost 2-1 at home to Lyon, and the table already has them 19th and 23rd of 36.
It is a meeting between a side that has kept its goal safe and a side that scores freely. Anderlecht arrive in good shape domestically, winning at Club Brugge on Saturday, and Dinamo have just lost at Hajduk Split.
Dinamo Zagreb sit 19th in the Europa League table on 1 point from 1 game. That was a 0-0 draw at Be'er Sheva, a clean sheet but not much in attack.
The domestic form is patchier. Dinamo lost 2-1 at Hajduk Split on Saturday, having beaten Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-2 at home on 20 September. Before the trip to Israel they were beaten 4-2 at Osijek.
Anderlecht are 23rd on 0 points after that 2-1 defeat to Lyon, but the shape of their season is healthier than the table suggests. They have won four of their last five, including a 2-1 win at Club Brugge on 10 October and a 3-0 home win over Zulte-Waregem. Only two losses sit in their last ten.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Anderlecht's recent games.
Dinamo Zagreb possible starting lineup:
Kotarski; Galesic, McKenna, Goda, DomÃnguez; Misic, Stojkovic, IvanuÅ¡ec; Almena, Hoxha, Beljo
Anderlecht possible starting lineup:
Coosemans; Maamar, Omobamidele, Pétrot, Augustinsson; Llansana, Ambros, Amane; Winkler, Aasgaard, Cvetkovic
Dion Beljo leads the Dinamo line. He has had a shot on target in four of his last five games, with three on target in the most recent of them, and he is 1.25 at Ladbrokes and Coral to land another.
Josip Misic has committed a foul in four of his last five and is 1.33 at Midnite to commit one here.
Ali Maamar has given away a foul in each of his last five games, with two in three of them, and is 1.29 at Midnite to do it again. Backing him to test the keeper is a bigger price, 3.75 for a shot on target, and the model ranks him much likelier to deliver than the market does.
Niko Galesic is the home name the model likes most, ranking him far likelier to have a shot on target than the price suggests. He is 3.75 for one on target and 5.00 for two or more shots.
Andrew Omobamidele is a centre-back and a longer shot at 4.33 for a shot on target.
The bookmakers make Dinamo Zagreb the favourite at 2.00 with bet365, with the draw and an Anderlecht win both at 3.70. Dinamo's defensive record is the case for the home side.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb win | 2.00 (bet365) | - |
| Draw | 3.70 (Coral) | - |
| Anderlecht win | 3.70 (bet365) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | - |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (bet365) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | - |
Anderlecht's attack is the case for goals, and both teams to score is 1.67 at bet365. Referee Orel Grinfeeld has averaged 3 yellow cards and 26 fouls across his two games this season, which fits the foul markets for Misic and Maamar.
A bet builder of Maamar to commit a foul, Beljo to have a shot on target and Misic to commit a foul comes to 2.06 combined.