Ararat-Armenia are still looking for their first point in this season's Europa League, and AZ arrive at the Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium on Thursday 22 October (kick-off 17:45 UK) with the league phase table firmly in their favour. The hosts sit 34th of 36 after two defeats and seven goals conceded. AZ are 20th with three points and a better record at both ends of the pitch.
The bookmakers have made their call: AZ are 1.53 at bet365 to win, with Ararat at 5.75 and the draw at 4.60 with Coral.
Ararat-Armenia have lost twice, scoring two and shipping seven. The 3-1 defeat at Jagiellonia last week followed a 4-1 home loss to Sparta Praha in September. Before that they beat U Craiova 1-0 at home in the qualifying rounds after a 1-1 draw in the first leg. They have lost three of their last five.
In the league stage they have scored two and conceded seven, and they average 2.5 shots on target a game.
AZ are in mixed form. They beat Be'er Sheva 2-1 in this competition last Thursday, then drew 2-2 at SC Cambuur in the Eredivisie on Sunday. Before that came a 2-0 loss at Feyenoord and a 1-0 win over Telstar. Their Europa League opener was a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland.
AZ average 4.5 shots on target and 5 corners a game, concede one a game and have not kept a clean sheet in the competition. They collect 3 cards and commit 13.5 fouls a game.
Ararat-Armenia possible starting lineup:
João Victor; Hugo Oliveira, Luis Felipe, Bruno Wilson, Edgar Grigoryan; Balanta Jr., Maxence Carlier, Alwyn Tera; Zidane Banjaqui, Sandro César Cordovil de Lima, Artur Serobyan
AZ possible starting lineup:
De Busser; Maikuma, Goes, Hoedt, De Wit; Koopmeiners, Kwakman, Oufkir; Daal, Byskov, Kovács
Artur Serobyan has had at least one shot in each of his last five games, an average of 2.8. He is 1.33 at bet365 for a shot.
Peer Koopmeiners has committed at least one foul in each of his last five games and is 1.20 at Midnite to do so again. He is also 2.38 for a shot on target, which our model ranks among the likeliest in the match.
Wesley Hoedt has fouled in four of his last five, and is 1.40 at Midnite for a foul.
AZ are the favourites at 1.53 with bet365, and the player markets are where the interest lies. The shots and fouls picks above combine to 1.75 as a bet builder: Serobyan one or more shots, Koopmeiners one or more fouls and Hoedt one or more fouls.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia to win | 5.75 (bet365) | - |
| Draw | 4.60 (Coral) | - |
| AZ to win | 1.53 (bet365) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | - |
AZ have the sharper attack on the road, with 4.5 shots on target a game to Ararat's 2.5. Ararat have conceded seven in two games, so goals at both ends are plausible: both teams to score is 1.67 and over 2.5 goals is 1.57 with bet365. We expect AZ to take the points. A bet builder of Serobyan for a shot, Koopmeiners for a foul and Hoedt for a foul comes to 1.75, and AZ are 1.53 with bet365 to win.