Sturm Graz host Olympique Marseille at the Merkur Arena on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 5:45pm UK, in a Europa League league-stage game between two clubs who have yet to win in the competition. Sturm Graz sit 26th of 36 with a point from two games, while Marseille are 32nd with none.
Sturm Graz have a point on the board after a 0-0 draw at home to Rennes, but they have not scored in Europe yet. They then lost 3-0 away to Bournemouth last Thursday, so they have scored none in two. They have kept a clean sheet in half of their games.
Domestically they bounced back in style at the weekend, thrashing Grazer AK 6-1 at home, after a 2-0 win at Austria Wien. Defeat at Salzburg in September came before that run. They commit 15 fouls a game.
Marseille have lost both European games so far, 4-1 at Beşiktaş and then 1-0 at home to Olympiacos. They conceded five in those two games and have not kept a clean sheet in Europe.
In Ligue 1 they have been much livelier. They won 5-2 at Angers on Sunday, and they beat Troyes 2-0 the week before. Those wins followed a 2-1 home loss to PSG. They also win 6 corners a game.
Sturm Graz possible starting lineup:
Helac; Quarshie, Malic, Petrović, Balbo; Heil, Gorenc Stankovic, Matoshi; Hödl, Seidl, Beganovic
Olympique Marseille possible starting lineup:
de Lange; Weah, Meïté, Aguerd, Garcia; Nnadi, Abdelli, Harit; Gomes, Paixão, Gouiri
Jon Gorenc Stankovic has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.50 at bet365 for one here, and our model ranks him the second likeliest player in the match to have a shot. He is 3.75 for a shot on target.
Jacob Peter Hödl is another shot angle in the home side. He is 1.22 to have a shot in the game, and our model ranks him as the second likeliest player for it.
For Marseille, Timothy Weah has had a shot in each of his last five games and is 1.25 at bet365 to do it again. Angel Gomes has committed a foul in four of his last five and is 1.33 at Midnite to commit at least one foul here.
Valmir Matoshi has committed at least one foul in each of his last five, which is the kind of steady record that makes him 1.25 at Midnite for a foul on Thursday.
We back Marseille to win at 2.05 with bet365, and the model has them at 50% to win, with 26% for Sturm Graz and 24% for a draw. Marseille are expected to get 16.5 shots to 11.3 for the hosts and to score 1.8 goals to 1.3.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz win | 3.50 (bet365) | 26% |
| Draw | 3.75 (Midnite) | 24% |
| Marseille win | 2.05 (bet365) | 50% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 59% |
Our prediction is 1-1, which is the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, though we make Marseille more likely to win than not. With a draw this near the top of the list, a draw is in play, and with a 60% chance both teams score and Marseille having conceded in both European games, that is a market to look at too.