Real Betis welcome Feyenoord to the Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla on Wednesday 21 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in a Champions League league-stage game between two sides who have conceded as readily as they have scored. Betis have won both of their European games so far and sit 9th in the table on 6 points. Feyenoord are 23rd on 3 points after a win and a defeat, with a goals-against column that makes uncomfortable reading.
Both teams have scored in every Betis and Feyenoord Champions League game so far, and each has gone over 2.5 goals.
Real Betis have six goals scored and four conceded from their two European games. Their latest was a 3-2 win over Porto last Wednesday, and they have scored three or more in two of their last three. The weekend brought a sharp reality check, though: a 5-2 home defeat to Barcelona in La Liga on Saturday. Before that they had hammered Osasuna 5-2 and drawn 1-1 at Deportivo.
Feyenoord arrive on five straight wins. They won 7-0 at PEC Zwolle, 5-0 against FC Utrecht and 2-0 against AZ, beat Como 3-2 in the Champions League on Wednesday, and on Saturday edged a seven-goal thriller, winning 4-3 at Telstar. They have conceded seven in two European games.
Betis average 3 goals a game in this competition and Feyenoord 2, and neither side has kept a clean sheet in Europe.
Real Betis possible starting lineup:
Valles; Natan, Bartra, Fran GarcÃa, Ortiz; Roca, Isco, Deossa; Antony, Abde, Parrott
Feyenoord possible starting lineup:
Ernst; St. Juste, Mármol, Javi López, Read; Targhalline, Zechiël, Vanhoutte; Valente, Hadj Moussa, Ferri
Anis Hadj Moussa has hit the target in four of his last five games, 1.6 shots on target per game, and is 1.53 at bet365 to have a shot on target again.
Gjivai Zechiël has had at least one shot in each of his last five games, with seven in total, and is 1.17 at bet365 for another. Our model also ranks him the likeliest in the match to commit a foul, at 1.40.
Fran GarcÃa has made two or more tackles in each of his last five games, averaging four, and 2+ tackles is 1.29 at bet365.
Nacho Ferri has committed at least one foul in each of his last five, and he is 1.06 at bet365 to do it again.
We back Real Betis, who are 1.57 at bet365 to win. Our model gives them a 57% chance, with 22% for the draw and 21% for Feyenoord, who are 5.00 at bet365. Both teams to score is 1.48 at Ladbrokes and we make it 62%, while over 2.5 goals is 1.36 at bet365 against our 64%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis win | 1.57 (bet365) | 57% |
| Draw | 4.60 (Ladbrokes) | 22% |
| Feyenoord win | 5.00 (bet365) | 21% |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 (Ladbrokes) | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 (bet365) | 64% |
Our model has Betis scoring 2.09 goals on average and Feyenoord 1.23. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1, though we make Betis the more likely winner, and 2-1 is almost as probable. A draw is in play.
Statz prediction: Real Betis 1-1 Feyenoord. Kick-off is at 8pm UK at La Cartuja in Seville, and Betis can go to nine points with a win.