Aston Villa host Fenerbahçe at Villa Park on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 8pm UK, with the leading goals-for record in the Champions League league stage so far against a side that has barely been breached. Villa scored three on the opening night and are 11th in the table. Fenerbahçe are 19th after a draw in their first game, and they arrive with one of the tightest defences in the competition.
Villa's own games have rarely been quiet. Fenerbahçe have conceded 0.57 goals per game this season. Our model leans towards the home side.
Villa opened the league stage with a 3-2 win away at Club Brugge, and that result in Belgium gave them three points from one game. They have scored three in that game and in the Carabao Cup win at Coventry, and also in the 3-2 win at Spurs. The most recent outing was a 2-2 draw with Brentford on Saturday, and before that came a 1-2 home defeat to Forest. Across the last ten, Villa have won six, drawn two and lost two, and the Champions League game had both teams scoring and went over 2.5 goals.
Fenerbahçe drew 1-1 with Roma in their first Champions League game, which leaves them with a point and 19th place. Domestically they are in fine fettle. They won 3-0 at Rizespor on Saturday and thrashed Eyüpspor 8-0 three weeks ago, with a goalless draw at Gaziantep in between. They have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games.
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Suzuki; Cash, Lindelöf, Torres, Wan-Bissaka; Kamara, Gomes; McGinn, Buendía, Manzambi; Jackson
Fenerbahçe possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Semedo, Škriniar, Aké, Brown; Kanté, Guendouzi, Elmaz; Aktürkoğlu, Greenwood, Muriqi
Nicolas Jackson has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, eight in all, and he is 1.25 at bet365 to have one here.
Mason Greenwood has had at least two shots in each of his last five and averages 3.8 per game over that stretch, with a high of six. He is 1.22 at bet365 to take two or more.
Kerem Aktürkoğlu has had a shot in each of his last five, nine in total, and is 1.36 at bet365 to take one here.
Aaron Wan-Bissaka has made at least two tackles in each of his last five games, thirteen in all, and is 1.67 at bet365 to do it again.
Milan Škriniar is one for the longer prices. Our model rates him likelier than the market does to have a shot, and he is 2.63 for one or more and 10.00 for two or more.
We back Aston Villa to win at 1.67 with midnite. Our model gives them a 59% chance, with the draw on 21% and Fenerbahçe on 20%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to win | 1.67 (midnite) | 59% |
| Draw | 4.20 (Ladbrokes) | 21% |
| Fenerbahçe to win | 5.50 (bet365) | 20% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 62% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (bet365) | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 64% |
We expect 2.13 goals from Villa and 1.18 from Fenerbahçe, and our prediction is Aston Villa 2-1 Fenerbahçe. A 1-1 draw is in play too, as it sits almost level with 2-1 in the scorelines, though we make Villa the likelier side to win. Over 2.5 goals comes in at 64% in our model.
Villa are projected to have 18.8 shots to Fenerbahçe's 9.3 and 6.7 on target to 3.6. Our model gives Fenerbahçe 2.41 yellow cards to Villa's 1.85 in a game with referee Ivan Kružliak, who averaged four yellows across his two games this season.