Real Betis host Porto at the Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla on Wednesday 14 October, with kick-off at 8pm UK, in a Champions League league-stage game that sets a side flying in Spain against one still looking for its first points in Europe.
Betis come into it in 9th place after a 3-2 win at Lille on matchday one, and they have scored five at home in La Liga since. Porto sit 31st of 36 after a 2-0 home defeat to Man City, though they have won every domestic game since. Something close to an even contest is the model's verdict, and it gives the draw a real chance.
Real Betis have lost once in their last ten games in all competitions. The latest run is four wins and a draw, starting with the 3-2 win at Lille in Europe and a 2-1 win at Villarreal. A 1-0 home win over Getafe followed, then a 1-1 draw at Deportivo, and on Sunday they put five past Osasuna in a 5-2 win.
That Lille game fits a pattern. Betis scored three and conceded two, and both teams scored. They have conceded in each of their last two outings and kept no clean sheet in Europe so far.
Porto have lost one of their last ten, and that was the 0-2 home defeat to Man City in their opener. They have answered with three straight league wins: 4-1 at Casa Pia, a 3-1 win over Benfica and, on Saturday, a 2-1 win at MarÃtimo. The Man City game was quiet at their end, with no shots on target, the fewest of any side in the competition.
Real Betis possible starting lineup:
Valles; BellerÃn, Natan, Bartra, Fran GarcÃa; Bernal, Fornals; Antony, Riquelme, Isco; Parrott
Porto possible starting lineup:
Diogo Costa; Alberto Costa, Kiwior, Martim Fernandes, Souza; Varela, Rosario; Gomes, Gabri Veiga, Pepê; André Silva
Troy Parrott leads the Betis line and has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, two of them with two or more. He is 1.33 at bet365 to have one here, and 4.33 to commit two or more fouls, a price that looks generous against how our model rates him.
Fran GarcÃa has made at least two tackles in each of his last five, averaging 3.8 and is 1.62 at bet365 for two or more.
Pablo Fornals and Antony have each committed a foul in all five of their recent games, and both are 1.40 at bet365 to do it again.
Betis are the narrow favourites at 2.10 with Ladbrokes, and our model backs them as well, giving the hosts a 38% chance against 36% for Porto and 26% for the draw. A draw is in play here: 1-1 is the single likeliest score.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis to win | 2.10 (Ladbrokes) | 38% |
| Draw | 3.75 (bet365) | 26% |
| Porto to win | 3.40 (bet365) | 36% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 56% |
We make it 1.48 goals for Betis and 1.44 for Porto, and each side has about a one-in-four chance of a clean sheet. Both teams scoring is the likelier outcome, and with Betis' recent games producing goals at both ends, the over 2.5 line is live too. We predict a 1-1 draw, though we make Betis slightly more likely to win. Referee Clément Turpin, who has averaged two yellow cards a game this season, takes charge.
On the player side, Parrott's shot on target and the Betis foul and tackle runs are where recent form and price line up best.