Roma welcome Real Madrid to the Stadio Olimpico on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in the Champions League league stage. Roma sit 17th of 36 on 1 point from one game, a 1-1 draw at Fenerbahçe. Real Madrid are 13th on 3 points after a 2-1 win over Inter. Both teams scored and conceded in their opener, which fits a fixture the model sees as open at both ends.
Roma have been hard to beat: a 0-0 at Como, a 2-2 with Inter, a 2-0 win at Torino and the 1-1 in Istanbul, with a 2-1 win over Atalanta before that. They have not lost in that stretch.
Real Madrid are scoring freely. They have won eight of their last ten and put away four against Rayo and three at Elche. The one blemish in the last five is a 2-1 defeat at Atlético, and they responded with a 1-0 win over Villarreal last weekend. In the Champions League they had 8 shots on target against Inter.
Both sides have seen both teams score in every Champions League game so far.
Roma committed 19 fouls in their Champions League opener, Real Madrid 12. Referee François Letexier averages 19.75 fouls and 2 yellow cards across four games this season.
Roma possible starting lineup:
Gollini; Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso; Molina, de Roon, Koné, Wesley; Soulé, Dybala, Malen
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Dumfries, Rüdiger, Konaté, Cucurella; Valverde, Bernardo Silva, Bellingham; Güler, Mbappé, Vinicius Junior
Vinicius Junior has had a shot on target in four of his last five games, with two in one of them, and bet365 offer 1.40 on him to have one here. He is also 1.33 to commit a foul.
Kylian Mbappé is the model's pick on the foul markets: he is 1.83 for one foul or more and 5.5 for two or more, and we rate him likelier than those prices suggest.
Denzel Dumfries has made two or more tackles in all five of his recent games, four of them in the latest, and is 1.40 at bet365 to do it again.
Marten de Roon has committed at least one foul in each of his last five and averages 1.8 a game. He is 1.18 at bet365 and 1.22 at Midnite.
Manu Koné is the Roma shot-on-target angle at 6.00 for one or more. Our model ranks him 10th likeliest in the match.
We back Real Madrid, who are 1.87 at BoyleSports, with Roma 3.75 at bet365 and the draw 4.20 at Midnite. Both teams to score is 1.40 at bet365 and our model puts it at 67%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Roma win | 3.75 (bet365) | 33% |
| Draw | 4.20 (Midnite) | 24% |
| Real Madrid win | 1.87 (BoyleSports) | 43% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 (bet365) | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 66% |
We predict Roma 1-1 Real Madrid, the likeliest single score at 10%, though we make Real Madrid more likely to win overall. A draw is in play. Our projection is 1.58 goals for Roma and 1.81 for Real Madrid, with Real Madrid's shots on target the clearest gap between the sides.
For a combined price, a four-leg builder of Dumfries two or more tackles, de Roon one or more foul, Konaté one or more foul and Vinicius Junior a shot on target comes out at 2.82.