Feyenoord and Como meet at Stadion Feijenoord on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 5:45pm UK, in a Champions League league-stage game between two sides who both conceded in their opener. Feyenoord are 33rd of 36 with no points after a 5-1 defeat at Barcelona. Como are 5th with three points after beating RB Leipzig 4-1, and they have scored more than most in the competition so far.
Feyenoord have been winning at home and in the Eredivisie, which makes this a test of how far that domestic form carries into Europe.
Feyenoord's season has run in two directions. Their only European game ended in that 5-1 loss at Barcelona, and it left them 33rd on goals against, the most of any side in the competition. Since then they have won three Eredivisie games in a row without conceding: 7-0 at PEC Zwolle, 5-0 against FC Utrecht and, most recently, 2-0 against AZ on 10 October. They have also won eight of their last ten games across all competitions.
Como's Champions League start could hardly have gone better. They beat RB Leipzig 4-1 on 10 September, and that 4 goals is the 4th most in the competition. Their league form since has been mixed: a 2-1 win over Parma, a 2-0 defeat at Frosinone and a goalless draw with Roma on Sunday. Our model projects them at 5.43 shots on target here.
Both sides have played one game, and both saw it finish with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals.
Feyenoord possible starting lineup:
Ernst; Read, Mármol, St. Juste, Deijl; Vanhoutte, Zechiël, Valente; Hadj Moussa, Ferri, López
Como possible starting lineup:
Butez; Couto, Ramón, Chalobah, Valle; Da Cunha, Milla, Baturina; Paz, Diao, Douvikas
Anis Hadj Moussa has had at least two shots in each of his last five games, with totals of 3, 3, 4, 2 and 4. That is an average of 3.2 a game, and he is 1.53 at bet365 to have two or more here.
Nico Paz is the chance creator for Como. He has had three or more shots in each of his last five, including ten in one game, and he averages five a match. Three or more shots is 1.29 at bet365.
Charles Vanhoutte has made two or more tackles in four of his last five, averaging 2.6, and two or more is 1.29 at bet365.
Nacho Ferri has made at least one tackle in each of his last five games, and one or more is 1.62 at bet365.
Luis Milla is the pick of the foul markets. We rate him likelier to commit a foul than the price suggests, and one or more is 1.67 with two or more at 4.00.
We back Como to win, and the best price on them is 1.95 at midnite. Feyenoord are 3.60 at bet365 and the draw is 4.00. Both teams to score is 1.40 and over 2.5 goals is 1.44, both at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord win | 3.60 (bet365) | 26.5% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 23.7% |
| Como win | 1.95 (midnite) | 49.8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 62.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 61.4% |
We make it 1-1, though we rate Como as the likelier winners at 49.8% against 26.5% for Feyenoord, so a draw is in play without being the main call. Our model projects 1.86 goals for Como and 1.31 for Feyenoord. Both teams scoring is rated at 62.2% and over 2.5 goals at 61.4%. Como's shot volume is the main reason we lean their way.
Referee Donatas Rumšas has averaged 3 yellow cards a game across four matches this season.