LOSC Lille and Galatasaray meet at Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Wednesday 21 October, kick-off 5:45pm UK, in a Champions League league-stage game that neither side can afford to lose. Both have played two and lost two, and they sit 34th and 35th in the 36-team league table, separated by a single place and a goal difference that is almost identical. Between them they have shipped 13 goals in four matches.
Lille are 34th with no points, two goals scored and six conceded. Their latest European outing was a 3-0 defeat at Arsenal, and they followed it with a 1-1 draw with Brest in Ligue 1 on Saturday. Before that came a 1-0 win over Le Havre and a 2-1 loss at Nice.
Galatasaray are 35th, also pointless, with two scored and seven against. They were beaten 4-1 by Barcelona last week but have kept their domestic form ticking over, winning 1-0 at Gençler on Saturday and 3-1 against Kasımpaşa before that. The blip in the run was a 4-0 defeat at Trabzonspor in September.
Both defences are among the leakiest in the competition. Lille concede 3 a game in the league stage and Galatasaray 3.5. Both sides' matches have gone over 2.5 goals every time, and Lille average one shot on target a game.
LOSC Lille possible starting lineup:
Özer; Goffi, Ngoy, Alexsandro, Perraud; André, Bentaleb; Bakwa, Haraldsson, Mukau; Giroud
Galatasaray possible starting lineup:
Çakır; Yılmaz, Sánchez, Jakobs, Elmalı; Lemina, Sara; Batrakov, Akgün, Sané; Osimhen
Yunus Akgün has had a shot in each of his last five games, with 9 in total, and is 1.25 at bet365 to have one. Gabriel Sara has done the same, with 12 shots across those five, and is 1.40.
On the fouls market, Davinson Sánchez has committed a foul in five straight games and is 1.33. For Lille, Benjamin André has also fouled in each of his last five, 8 in all, and is 1.14 at bet365. Together with Akgün and Sara, those four make up a bet builder paying 2.69 combined.
We back Lille to win, at 2.15 with bet365. Galatasaray are 3.20 at bet365 and the draw is 3.75 at midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Lille win | 2.15 (bet365) | 44% |
| Draw | 3.75 (midnite) | 26% |
| Galatasaray win | 3.20 (bet365) | 30% |
| Both teams to score | 1.55 (ladbrokes) | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 54% |
Our model has Lille on 1.56 goals and Galatasaray on 1.26. 1-1 is the likeliest single score, though we make Lille more likely to win overall. Our prediction is Lille 1-1 Galatasaray, though we make Lille more likely to win, and both teams to score is a 57% chance. Both teams to score is 1.55 at Ladbrokes and over 2.5 goals is 1.62 at bet365, which our model rates at 57% and 54%, while over 1.5 goals is 1.20 at bet365 and comes in at 78%. We give Lille a 28% chance of a clean sheet and Galatasaray 21%, and neither side has kept one in the league stage. Neither club has won in the competition yet, and each has scored two goals in its two games. The game kicks off at 5:45pm UK, ahead of the evening's 8pm ties, and the winner would collect a first league-stage points.