Bodø / Glimt host Borussia Dortmund at the Aspmyra Stadion on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 20:00 UK, in the Champions League league stage. The home side arrive pointless and 36th of 36 after a 5-0 defeat at Bayern, while Dortmund sit 12th with three points from a 3-2 win over Villarreal. Dortmund's one European game produced five goals and the home side's produced five against, so this one has the look of an open night.
Bodø / Glimt have nothing to show for their opening game, with no points, no goals and five against. Domestically they have kept winning, though: they beat Kristiansund 3-1 at home on 10 October in the Eliteserien, lost 2-1 at Brann on 20 September, then beat Sandefjord 3-2 at home on 14 September. Before that came the 5-0 loss at Bayern on 10 September and a 2-1 win at Fredrikstad.
Across all competitions they average 2.4 goals a game and concede 2.2.
Borussia Dortmund have lost once in their last ten. They drew 2-2 at home to Bremen on 9 October after winning 1-0 at Stuttgart, beating Paderborn 3-0 and edging Villarreal 3-2 in their European opener. They average 3 goals a game.
Dortmund also take plenty of set pieces, with 9 corners a game, the 3rd most, and commit 15 fouls, the 12th most. In the league table they are 12th on 3 points with Bodø / Glimt 36th on none. Dortmund's goals record is the stronger of the two.
Bodø / Glimt possible starting lineup:
Haikin; Sjøvold, Nielsen, Gundersen, Bjørkan; Fet, Auklend, Berg; Hauge, Helmersen, Blomberg
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Gadou, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Svensson; Beier, Bellingham, Nmecha, Sabitzer; Nwaneri, Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy has had at least two shots in each of his last five games, with 2, 4, 5, 3 and 3, 17 in all, and 1.20 at bet365 for two or more here. He leads Dortmund's attack.
Sondre Fet has had a shot in all five of his recent games, 7 in total, and is 1.22 at bet365 to take one here. Ole Didrik Blomberg has put a shot on target in four of his last five and is 1.67 for another.
Sondre Auklend has made two or more tackles in four of his last five games, 16 in all, at 3.2 a game. He is 1.80 at bet365 to do it again.
Waldemar Anton is the model's pick in the foul market. We rate him 2nd likeliest for a foul and he is 1.62 for one or more, with 4.00 on two or more.
We back Dortmund at 2.05 with Coral, and we make them 43.7% to win, against 32.3% for Bodø / Glimt and 24.0% for a draw.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bodø / Glimt to win | 3.25 (bet365) | 32.3% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 24.0% |
| Dortmund to win | 2.05 (Coral) | 43.7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 (bet365) | 64.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 63.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 (bet365) | 84.0% |
Our projection has Bodø / Glimt on 1.49 goals and Dortmund on 1.76. The model has both teams to score at 64.6%, and Dortmund keep a clean sheet only 22.5% of the time. Our predicted score is a 1-1 draw, though we make Dortmund the likelier winners, and the 1-2 and 2-1 scorelines come next. With the draw this high, a draw is in play.
A four-leg bet builder on the player markets takes Fet to have a shot, Guirassy two shots, Blomberg a shot on target and Auklend two tackles, at a combined 4.40.
Referee Urs Schnyder has taken two games this season, averaging 3 yellow cards and 24 fouls, which suits the foul markets on Anton and the home side's Haitam Aleesami and Jens Petter Hauge, each 1.73 for a foul.