Inter and Club Brugge meet at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Tuesday 13 October, with kick-off at 8pm UK, and both arrive in the Champions League league stage with nothing to show for their opening game. Inter lost 2-1 at Real Madrid, Brugge lost 3-2 at home to Villa.
Inter are the heavy favourites. Our model gives them a 75% chance of winning, and they have scored three or more in three of their last five games in all competitions. Brugge have been scoring freely too, so this is not a one-way contest on paper.
Inter sit 26th of 36 in the Champions League table with no points from one game. The defeat in Madrid on 8 September, was their only loss in the last five. They had beaten Napoli 3-2 on 5 September, and since Madrid came a 5-3 win against Udinese, a 2-2 draw at Roma and a 3-0 win over Parma on Saturday. That is 14 goals in their last five matches.
In Europe their numbers stand out. Inter had 7 shots on target and 11 corners against Real Madrid, the most corners of any team in the competition.
Club Brugge are 23rd, also on no points, after that 3-2 home defeat to Villa. Domestically they have been in fine form: La Louvière 1-4 Club Brugge on Saturday followed 3-0 against Genk and 3-1 against Antwerp, and they have won eight of their last ten. They scored twice against Villa, the 18th most in the competition so far, but conceded three, the 10th most.
Inter possible starting lineup:
Josep MartÃnez; Pavard, Bisseck, Bastoni; Diouf, Barella, ÇalhanoÄŸlu, ZieliÅ„ski, Dimarco; Thuram, Lautaro MartÃnez
Club Brugge possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Sabbe, Mechele, Lee, Seys; Potts, Vanaken, Vetlesen; Forbs, Virgili, Tresoldi
Hugo Vetlesen has had at least one shot in each of his last five games, with 4, 1, 3, 3 and 2 in that run, and he is 1.36 at bet365 to have a shot here. His team-mate Carlos Forbs has done the same five times running, averaging 2.2 shots a game, and is 1.29 at bet365 for one.
Nicolò Barella is the Inter midfielder our model rates highest for two or more shots on target, third likeliest in this match on our ranking, and he is 5.50 for it.
Federico Dimarco is the same story from the left: our model ranks him third likeliest for two or more shots on target, at 4.33, driven by his role in Inter's attacking play rather than a run of games.
Yann Bisseck has made at least one tackle in each of his last five, with 2, 2, 4, 3 and 3, and is 1.20 at bet365 to make one again.
We back Inter to win, with bet365 at 1.25 on the home side. The model has Inter at 75%, the draw at 15% and Brugge at 10%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Inter win | 1.25 (bet365) | 75% |
| Draw | 6.00 (bet365) | 15% |
| Club Brugge win | 11.00 (bet365) | 10% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 (Ladbrokes) | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 72% |
We project Inter for 2.8 goals and Brugge for 0.95, and the likeliest scoreline is 2-0, with 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 all close behind it. Both teams scored in each side's opening Champions League game, and our model gives Brugge a 39% chance of being kept out by a clean sheet from Inter, so both teams to score is close to a coin flip at around 58%. We predict Inter 2-0 Club Brugge.