Updated 29 October 2026.
Casa Pia host Sporting CP at the Estádio Pina Manique on Friday 30 October, with kick-off at 20:15 UK. It is a Liga Portugal game between a side that has scored five goals in nine league games and one that has scored 21. Casa Pia have the fewest shots on target in the division, and Sporting have the 3rd most.
Sporting have lost their last two games, but our model still makes them 71% to win against 10% for Casa Pia, and a 2-0 away win is the likeliest single score.
Casa Pia sit 16th of 18 on 7 points from nine games, with two wins, a draw and six defeats. They have conceded 17 and scored 5, and their goals-for average of 0.56 per game is the 2nd fewest in the league. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games, the 2nd lowest rate. Their shots on target average of 2.78 per game is the fewest of any side.
Casa Pia won 2-0 at Estrela on 24 October, having lost 0-1 at home to Santa Clara two weeks earlier. Before that came a 2-1 win at Estoril, a 1-4 home loss to Porto and a 0-0 draw at Vitória SC. Both of their wins in that run came away from home, and in the two home games they scored once and conceded five.
Sporting are 3rd on 18 points with five wins, three draws and one defeat, with 21 goals scored and 11 conceded. They score 2.33 goals per game, the 2nd most in the league. Both teams have scored in 78% of their games, the highest rate, and 78% have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd highest.
Sporting lost 1-2 at home to Ac. Viseu on 25 October and 2-3 at home to LASK Linz in the Champions League four days before that. Before the two defeats they won 2-0 at Lens and 3-1 at Braga. They had drawn 2-2 at home to Arouca before that, so they have conceded in four of their last five games.
Sporting are 13 places and 11 points clear of the hosts in the Liga Portugal table.
Casa Pia possible starting lineup:
Sequeira; Kaly, Geraldes, Pérez, Sousa; Rosas, Ofori; Salah El Boukammiri, Rego, Pauwels; Cassiano
Sporting CP possible starting lineup:
Kaique; Fresneda, Inácio, Ba, Araújo; Altimira, Doumbia; Irankunda, Guilherme, Gonçalves; Suárez
Luis Suárez has had a shot on target in seven straight games, averaging 1.4 per game over that run. He has also had at least one shot in seven straight games, at 3.3 per game, and is 1.22 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target.
Sergi Altimira has made at least one tackle in nine straight games, averaging 3.3 over that run.
Casa Pia's David Sousa has committed at least one foul in nine straight games, averaging 1.4 over that run. Team-mate Kaly has fouled in four straight and tackled in six, and is 1.30 at Midnite for a foul.
On the other side, Iván Fresneda has fouled in eight straight games and is 1.33 at Midnite. João Rego has had a shot in four straight games, at 2.3 per game, and is 1.44 at bet365 for a shot.
Our model gives Sporting a 71% chance of winning, with the draw at 19% and Casa Pia at 10%. The best prices are 1.30 on Sporting at Ladbrokes, 5.75 on the draw at Coral and 10.00 on Casa Pia at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia win | 10.00 (bet365) | 10% |
| Draw | 5.75 (Coral) | 19% |
| Sporting CP win | 1.30 (Ladbrokes) | 71% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 (bet365) | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 57% |
Our prediction is a 2-0 win for Sporting, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%. We project 2.25 goals for the visitors and 0.74 for Casa Pia, and give Sporting a 48% chance of a clean sheet. The next likeliest scores are a 1-0 away win at 10.5% and a 3-0 away win at 9.6%.
We project 6.55 shots on target for Sporting against 2.83 for Casa Pia.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal kicks off at 20:15 UK time on Friday 30 October 2026 at the Estádio Pina Manique. Sporting CP are 3rd on 18 points after 9 games, and Casa Pia are 16th of 18 on 7 points.
We predict a 2-0 win for Sporting CP in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal, the likeliest single score at 13%. We give Sporting CP a 71% chance of winning, with 19% for the draw and 10% for a Casa Pia win.
Sporting CP are the favourites to win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal, with our model giving them a 71% chance against 10% for Casa Pia and 19% for a draw. The bookmakers also make Sporting CP the clear favourites.
We give both teams a 48% chance to score in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal. Both teams have scored in 78% of Sporting's league games, the highest rate in the league, while Casa Pia are at 22%, the 2nd lowest.
We give over 2.5 goals a 57% chance in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal. 78% of Sporting's league games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 2nd highest rate in the league, against 33% of Casa Pia's, the 3rd lowest.
Before Casa Pia vs Sporting CP in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal, Sporting CP are 3rd with 18 points from 9 games and Casa Pia are 16th of 18 with 7 points from 9 games, a gap of 11 points.
For the 20:15 UK kick-off of Casa Pia vs Sporting CP in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal on 30 October 2026, Casa Pia's possible starting lineup is Sequeira; Kaly, Geraldes, Pérez, Sousa; Rosas, Ofori; Salah El Boukammiri, Rego, Pauwels; Cassiano. Sporting CP's possible starting lineup is Kaique; Fresneda, Inácio, Ba, Araújo; Altimira, Doumbia; Irankunda, Guilherme, Gonçalves; Suárez.