Borussia Dortmund welcome Werder Bremen to Signal Iduna Park on Friday 9 October, with kick-off at 19:30 UK time. The tension is easy to state: Dortmund are 1st with four wins from four and have the best defensive record in the league, while Bremen have found the net freely but have not yet kept a clean sheet.
The Bundesliga table has Dortmund on 12 points, with nine goals scored and two conceded. Bremen sit 8th on 7 points after two wins, a draw and a defeat, and their games have been open: all four have seen both teams score. Something has to give, and our model leans one way.
Dortmund have won each of their last five matches in all competitions, and eight of their last ten. Their latest result was a 1-0 win at Stuttgart, which followed a 3-0 home win over Paderborn. In between came a 3-2 Champions League win over Villarreal and a 3-2 win at Hoffenheim, so they have not always been airtight in those games. In the league, though, they concede 0.5 goals per game, the fewest in the division, and have kept clean sheets in 75% of matches, the highest rate.
Dortmund's goals are steady rather than spectacular: 2.25 per game, the 6th most. They also collect cards, averaging 2.75 per game, the 2nd most in the league, which is worth knowing with 11 fouls a game on their ledger.
Bremen's recent run is mixed. They won 3-2 against Augsburg last time out, drew 1-1 at Koln, beat RB Leipzig 3-1 and lost 4-1 at Freiburg. Before that, they went down 2-0 to Dortmund in May. They score 2.0 goals per game, the 9th most, and concede 2.0, the 8th most. Both teams have scored in 100% of their games, the highest rate in the league, and they average the 3rd most shots on target at 6.5.
So Bremen can hurt teams, but they have not faced a defence like this one. Their record suggests goals for them are plausible, a clean sheet is not.
Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Gadou, Anton, Bensebaini, Svensson; Veerman, Nmecha; Beier, Nwaneri, Silva; Guirassy
Bremen possible starting lineup:
Hein; Deman, Pieper, Friedl, Arthur; Reis, Regeer; Grull, Dinkci, Chuki; Fullkrug
The standout streak belongs to Bremen's Niclas Fullkrug. He has had a shot on target in four straight games, averaging 1.8 per game, and that run ranks 1st in the Bundesliga. A shot on target is priced at 2.1 at bet365. Dortmund's job is to cut service to him, and their back line has conceded little so far, so this is a fair price on a real streak rather than a gift.
For Dortmund, Serhou Guirassy has registered two or more fouls in three straight games, averaging 2.3, and ranks 5th in the league for that run. In midfield, Felix Nmecha and Joey Veerman have each had a shot in four straight games, though both are short prices. Daniel Svensson has made two or more tackles in four straight at 3.5 per game.
On Bremen's side, Marco Grull has had two or more shots in three straight games, averaging 3.0, and is priced at 1.95. Eren Dinkci has had a shot in each of his last five, with 2, 2, 1, 3 and 1 across that stretch, which is why a shot at 1.18 looks like the safest rung on the board even if the price is short.
The model also flags a few fouls markets where it likes a player more than the price does. Waldemar Anton to commit a foul at 1.53 is the clearest: the model ranks him 4th likeliest but the market prices him 14th. His own record backs it up reasonably, with a foul in four of his last five. Marco Friedl is a similar case at 1.5, and he has fouled in four straight games. Treat these as model preferences confirmed by decent form rather than anything stronger.
The market and our model are in near-agreement on the result. Dortmund are best priced at 1.36 (Ladbrokes), an implied 73.5%, and the model has them at 69.4%. If anything, the market is slightly more bullish than we are. The draw is 5.5 at bet365 (18.2% implied against our 19.1%), and Bremen are 8.0 (12.5% against our 11.5%). That is no edge to speak of, so the market has the result about right.
The goals markets are where the numbers differ a little. Over 2.5 goals is 1.40, an implied 71.4%, while the model puts it at 60.1%, so the price looks short against our projection. Both teams to score at 1.62 implies 61.7% against our 51.3%, which also leans generous to the yes side. Dortmund's defensive record and Bremen's habit of scoring pull in opposite directions, and our model sides a little with the defence.
| Market | Best price | Implied | Statz model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund win | 1.36 | 73.5% | 69.4% |
| Draw | 5.50 | 18.2% | 19.1% |
| Bremen win | 8.00 | 12.5% | 11.5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 61.7% | 51.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 71.4% | 60.1% |
Our model projects 2.28 goals for Dortmund against 0.83 for Bremen, and makes Dortmund clear favourites. Its most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11.6%, with 2-1 next at 9.6%, then 1-0 at 9.5%. The draw is not far away either: 1-1 sits at 9.1%, so a tight game is a live possibility and not one to wave off. We expect Dortmund to win without needing a great deal of goals.
Statz prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Werder Bremen.