Paderborn welcome VfB Stuttgart to the Home Deluxe Arena on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 14:30 UK. The hosts have scored fewer than a goal a game, while Stuttgart's league matches have been open and high-scoring, so the question is whether the visitors' attack can get through a side that has conceded just five in four.
Stuttgart sit 15th on 3 points and Paderborn are 12th on 4, so there is not much between them in the table. Our model still makes the visitors clear favourites.
Paderborn have taken 4 points from their first four Bundesliga games, with one win, one draw and two defeats. The win came last time out, a 3-1 victory over Hoffenheim on 20 September, which is more than they had scored in the three games before it put together. Before that came a 3-0 defeat at Dortmund, a 1-0 home loss to Freiburg and a goalless draw at Mainz.
The defence is the more solid side of their game. Paderborn have the 5th fewest goals against in the division and have kept a clean sheet in one game in four. Up front it is thin: they sit near the bottom for shots on target, with the fewest in the league at two a game.
Stuttgart have won one and lost three of their four league games, scoring 6 and conceding 9. They opened with a 5-1 defeat at Bayern, then beat Koln 4-1 at home. Since then they have lost 2-1 at Hoffenheim and 1-0 at home to Dortmund. In between came a 3-1 Champions League win over Viking.
Goals are the theme of their games. Both teams have scored in 75% of Stuttgart's league matches, the 5th highest rate in the division, and they have the 7th most shots on target per game at 5.5. Their goals record shows the other side: they have not kept a clean sheet yet.
Only a point and one place separate them in the Bundesliga standings, and neither side has found a rhythm yet.
Paderborn possible starting lineup:
Noll; ter Horst, Scheller, Curda, Hansen; Castaneda, Ulrich; Obermair, Vidovic, Pieringer; Marino
VfB Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Seimen; Vagnoman, Chabot, Jeltsch, Mittelstädt; Stiller, Prömel; Führich, El Khannouss, Undav; Pejcinovic
Stefano Marino has had a shot in all four of Paderborn's league games, averaging 1.5 a game, and the bet365 price on another is 1.10. That run is the best of any player in the division.
Grischa Prömel has had at least one shot in each of Stuttgart's four league games, averaging 2.3, and is 1.08 to make it five. Team-mate Dzenan Pejcinovic has matched the run at the same 2.3 a game.
Jeff Chabot is the defender to note, with two or more tackles in four straight games and 2.3 a game across them, and he is 1.62 to do it again.
Santiago Castaneda has made a tackle in every Paderborn game this season, 2.8 a game, the best run in the division. Our model also rates him the likeliest of anyone on the pitch to have a shot on target, and he is 4.33 for that.
Angelo Stiller has committed at least one foul in four straight games and is 1.33 to do so again.
We back Stuttgart, who are 1.60 with bet365 to win. Our model gives them a 57% chance, against 20% for Paderborn and 23% for a draw.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Paderborn to win | 4.75 (bet365) | 20% |
| Draw | 4.75 (bet365) | 23% |
| Stuttgart to win | 1.60 (bet365) | 57% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 (bet365) | 62% |
We project Stuttgart to score 2.05 goals and Paderborn 1.15. The likeliest single scoreline is 1-1, so a draw is in play, but we make Stuttgart the more likely winner. We predict Paderborn 1-1 Stuttgart, with a Stuttgart win the single most likely result.
Both teams to score is 60% in our model and Over 2.5 goals is 62%, which fits how Stuttgart's games have gone. Paderborn's own record points the other way, with both teams scoring in only one of their four league games.