Eintracht Frankfurt welcome FC Köln to Deutsche Bank Park on Friday 16 October, with kick-off at 19:30 UK. Both sides have been giving up goals in bunches, and the model expects the scoreboard to keep moving. Frankfurt come off a 6-0 defeat at RB Leipzig, while Köln arrive after beating Gladbach 2-1 on Sunday.
Frankfurt sit 14th with 5 points from 5 games, and Köln are 10th on 7. Our model makes the hosts the more likely winners, with a 51% chance of a home win against 27% for Köln, and it gives both teams to score a 69% chance.
Eintracht Frankfurt have won once, drawn twice and lost twice, scoring 9 and conceding 16. That is 3.2 a game, and the 6-0 loss at RB Leipzig accounts for a big chunk of it. Before that came a 2-2 draw with Freiburg at home and a 3-1 win at Mainz. Both teams have scored in four of Frankfurt's five games, and every one of them has gone over 2.5 goals.
FC Köln have won twice, drawn once and lost twice, with 8 scored and 10 conceded. Their 2-1 win over Gladbach came after a 2-1 defeat at Hamburg and a 1-1 draw with Bremen, and earlier they lost 4-1 at Stuttgart before beating Hoffenheim 3-2. Both teams have scored in every one of Köln's games.
Neither side has kept a clean sheet this season, so goals at both ends look likely.
Eintracht Frankfurt possible starting lineup:
Atubolu; Baum, Collins, Brassier, Knauff; Onyedika, Aseko; Doan, Kosugi, Uzun; Burkardt
FC Köln possible starting lineup:
Schwäbe; Sebulonsen, Simpson-Pusey, Lochoshvili, Sosa; Krauß, Jóhannesson; Maina, El Mala, Moore; Bülter
Jonathan Burkardt leads Frankfurt's line and has had three or more shots in four straight games, averaging 3.3 a game. He has also had a shot on target in each of those four, and three or more shots is 1.55 at Ladbrokes.
Can Uzun has had two or more shots in four straight games, averaging 2.5, and he is 1.25 at bet365 for one or more shots.
Raphael Onyedika has committed two or more fouls in four straight games and averages 2.5 a game. Two or more fouls is 2.20 at Midnite.
Ísak Jóhannesson has had a shot in five straight games for Köln and is 1.67 at bet365 to make it six.
Linton Maina has had a shot in four straight games and is 1.22 at bet365.
We back Eintracht Frankfurt to win at 1.95 with Ladbrokes, and the bookmakers agree the hosts are favourites. The draw is 4.20 at Ladbrokes and Köln are 3.50 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Frankfurt win | 1.95 (Ladbrokes) | 51% |
| Draw | 4.20 (Ladbrokes) | 22% |
| Köln win | 3.50 (bet365) | 27% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 (bet365) | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 (bet365) | 70% |
Our model expects 2.1 goals from Frankfurt and 1.5 from Köln, with 1-1 the likeliest single score at 9.3%. A draw is in play, though we make Frankfurt the more likely winners, and 2-1 to the hosts is only a fraction behind at 9.0%. Our prediction is a 1-1 draw.
The player markets are where the interest lies. Burkardt, Uzun and Onyedika all arrive on runs, and on the Köln side Jóhannesson has a shot in five straight games. A bet builder of Onyedika to commit a foul, Maina to have a shot and Jóhannesson to have a shot comes in at 2.81 combined.