Werder Bremen host Paderborn at the Wohninvest Weserstadion on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 2:30pm UK time. Bremen are 7th and have scored 10 goals in five games. Paderborn are 15th and have scored three, the fewest in the division.
Bremen's games have been busy at both ends, while Paderborn's have been low on goals and chances.
Werder Bremen sit 7th with 8 points from five games, two wins, two draws and a defeat. Their last outing was a 2-2 draw at Dortmund, and before that came a 3-2 home win over Augsburg. They also beat RB Leipzig 3-1 at the Weserstadion, though they were hammered 4-1 at Freiburg on 30 August.
Goals follow Bremen around. Both teams have scored in every one of their games, the highest rate in the league, and they have gone over 2.5 goals in four of five. Bremen have 6 shots on target a game, the 6th most in the division, and commit the 5th most fouls. Their corner count is low, the 2nd fewest, so the threat is coming from shots rather than set pieces.
Paderborn are 15th with 4 points, one win, one draw and three defeats. They lost 2-0 to Stuttgart last time out, after a 3-1 win over Hoffenheim that is the only game in which they have scored more than once. Before that came a 3-0 loss at Dortmund, a 1-0 home defeat to Freiburg and a goalless draw at Mainz.
Paderborn average 0.6 goals a game and 2.8 shots on target, the fewest in the league on both counts. Only 20% of their games have seen both teams score, the 2nd lowest, and just 40% have gone over 2.5 goals. At the back, their 1.4 goals against a game is the 6th fewest in the division. The gap between the sides in the Bundesliga table is eight places.
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Hein; Deman, Wojcik, Friedl, Arthur; Reis, Regeer; Grüll, Dinkçi, Chuki; Füllkrug
Paderborn possible starting lineup:
Noll; ter Horst, Scheller, Hansen, Curda; Castaneda, Ulrich; Obermair, Vidovic; Pieringer, Marino
Niclas Füllkrug leads the Bremen attack and has had two or more shots on target in three straight games, a run that tops the division. He is 2.75 at bet365 for two or more again, and he has hit the target in all five games this season, averaging 1.8 a game.
Marco Grüll has had a shot in each of Bremen's five games, averaging 2.2 per game.
For Paderborn, Marvin Pieringer has committed at least one foul in five straight games and averages 2.6 a game, with 1.20 available at midnite. Centre-back Tjark Lasse Scheller has made a tackle in each game, averaging 2.0, and is 2.20 at one or more fouls, a price our model rates higher than the market does.
Raphael Obermair has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.73 at bet365 to have one here. He is 4.33 for a shot on target.
We back Werder Bremen, who are 1.80 at Ladbrokes to win. The draw and a Paderborn win are both 4.20 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bremen win | 1.80 (Ladbrokes) | 52% |
| Draw | 4.20 (bet365) | 26% |
| Paderborn win | 4.20 (bet365) | 22% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 52% |
We project Bremen to score 1.7 goals and Paderborn 1.04. Bremen's chance of keeping a clean sheet is 35%, against 18% for the visitors. The likeliest single score is 1-1, so a draw is in play, though we make Bremen the most likely winners and 2-1 and 1-0 are both close behind. Our prediction is Werder Bremen 1-1 Paderborn.
The player markets offer the sharper angles. Füllkrug has hit the target in all five games, Pieringer has committed a foul in each of his five, and Scheller's fouls prices come out higher in our model than the market gives them.