Updated 23 October 2026.
FSV Mainz 05 welcome Werder Bremen to the Mewa Arena on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 14:30 UK. Mainz sit 5th in the Bundesliga table on 10 points from six games, and Bremen are 8th on 9. The gap is a single point and three places. Bremen's last five league games have produced goals at both ends, while Mainz have kept a clean sheet in half of theirs.
Mainz have won three, drawn one and lost two, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Their last five league games were a 5-0 win at Hamburg, a 3-1 home loss to Frankfurt, a 4-3 win at Gladbach, a 4-3 home defeat to Leverkusen, then a 1-0 win at Schalke last Saturday. They have kept a clean sheet in half their games, the 2nd highest rate in the league, and average 6 shots on target per game, the 6th most.
Bremen have yet to lose in their last five, with two wins and three draws. They beat RB Leipzig 3-1 at home, drew 1-1 at Köln, beat Augsburg 3-2, drew 2-2 at Dortmund and drew 2-2 with Paderborn last time out. Both sides have scored in every Bremen game this season, the highest rate in the division, and Bremen have not kept a clean sheet. They average 6.83 shots on target a game, the 3rd most in the Bundesliga.
FSV Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Schwolow; Mwene, Posch, Potulski, Da Costa; Sano, Caci, Lee; Amiri, Becker, Tietz
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Hein; Deman, Pieper, Friedl, Arthur; Reis, Regeer; Dinkçi, Grüll, Chuki; Füllkrug
Phillip Tietz has had 3+ shots in six straight games, averaging 4 a game, which is the best such run in the Bundesliga. He has also had a shot on target in all six, and is 1.36 with bet365 for another.
Niclas Füllkrug has had 2+ shots in four straight games and 2+ shots on target in the same four. He has hit the target in each of his last five, with five shots on target in one of them. The 2+ shots on target market is 4.50 with bet365.
Phillipp Mwene has made a tackle in six straight games, averaging 2 per game, and is 1.25 with bet365 to do it again.
Marco Grüll has had a shot in all six Bremen games, averaging 2.2, and is 1.15 at Ladbrokes to make it seven.
Marco Friedl has committed a foul in six straight games, averaging 1.8 a game, and is 1.50 with Midnite to extend that. Youri Regeer has made two or more tackles in each of his last five games and is 1.36 with bet365 to do it again.
Mainz are the favourites at 1.73 with bet365, and we make them the likeliest winner too: a 54% chance, against 24% for the draw and 22% for Bremen. We project 1.91 goals for Mainz and 1.18 for Bremen. Both teams to score is 1.53 and over 2.5 goals is 1.57, both with bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Mainz win | 1.73 | 54% |
| Draw | 4.00 | 24% |
| Bremen win | 4.50 | 22% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% |
1-1 is the likeliest single score at 11%, though we make Mainz the likelier winner at 54% and a 2-1 home win is next. Our prediction is Mainz 1-1 Bremen.
Mainz host Bremen at the Mewa Arena on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 14:30 UK.
Mainz 1-1 Bremen is the likeliest single score, with Mainz a 54% chance to win. A draw is in play, but Mainz 2-1 is next on the list.
Mainz are favourites at 1.73 with bet365, against 4.00 for the draw and 4.50 for Bremen.
Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, and Bremen have scored and conceded in every league game this season. Bet365 offer 1.53.
Mainz are 5th on 10 points and Bremen 8th on 9, after six games each.
Phillip Tietz has had 3+ shots in six straight games for Mainz, and Niclas Füllkrug has had 2+ shots in four straight for Bremen.
Mainz: Schwolow; Mwene, Posch, Potulski, Da Costa; Sano, Caci, Lee; Amiri, Becker, Tietz. Bremen: Hein; Deman, Pieper, Friedl, Arthur; Reis, Regeer; Dinkçi, Grüll, Chuki; Füllkrug.