Updated 5 November 2026.
Hamburger SV host Borussia Mönchengladbach at the Volksparkstadion on Friday 6 November, kick-off 19:30 UK, in a Bundesliga game between two clubs in the bottom four. Hamburg are 15th with 9 points from 8 games. Gladbach are 18th with 4. Neither side has found a way to keep goals out: Gladbach have shipped 22 and Hamburg 19.
Hamburg sit 15th in the Bundesliga table with three wins and five defeats. They won three in a row through September and October, beating Köln 2-1, then winning 3-2 at Hoffenheim and edging Stuttgart 1-0. Since then it has turned: 1-0 at Paderborn and 3-1 at Frankfurt, two straight defeats on the road.
Hamburg score 0.88 goals a game, the 4th fewest in the league, and their 3.25 shots on target a game is the 2nd fewest. They concede 2.38 a game, the 3rd most. They also commit the most fouls in the division, 13.75 a game.
Gladbach are bottom with one win and one draw from eight. They won 3-2 at Stuttgart on 23 October and then drew 0-0 with Paderborn at home on 31 October. Before the Stuttgart win they lost to Hoffenheim and Köln, and before that 4-3 at home to Mainz.
They concede 2.75 a game, the most in the Bundesliga, and 88% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest rate in the league. They also lead the league for cards at 3.25 a game and are the 2nd most-fouling side at 13.63.
Hamburger SV possible starting lineup:
Heuer Fernandes; Nandja, Torunarigha, Omari, Møller Wolfe; Adeline, Sambi Lokonga; Muheim, Lemke, Grønbæk; Moffi
Borussia Mönchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Batz; Scally, Chiarodia, Hashioka, Ullrich; Sander, Uno; Neuhaus, Hack, Mohya; Machino
Philipp Sander has committed a foul in all eight of Gladbach's games, averaging 2 a game. He is 1.14 at bet365 to make it nine.
Albert Sambi Lokonga has fouled in six straight for Hamburg at 1.7 a game and is 1.30 at bet365. Next to him, Martin Adeline has made three or more tackles in four consecutive games, averaging 3.8, and is 2.20 at bet365 to do it again.
Wael Mohya has had a shot in five straight for Gladbach, averaging 2 a game, and is 1.17 at bet365. Joe Scally has also had a shot in five in a row and is 1.67 at Ladbrokes.
For a longer price, Miro Muheim is 3.50 for a shot on target.
We make Hamburg the likeliest winners, and they are 2.45 at bet365. Both teams to score is 1.53 at bet365, and Over 2.5 goals is 1.67, which fits two sides conceding more than two goals a game.
Two Hamburg defenders are also on tackle runs: David Møller Wolfe has made a tackle in four straight games at 1.30 at bet365, and S. Nandja has done the same at 1.29.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburg win | 2.45 (bet365) | 41% |
| Draw | 3.70 (Ladbrokes) | 26% |
| Gladbach win | 2.75 (bet365) | 33% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 57% |
We predict 1-1 as the likeliest single scoreline, at 12%, though we make Hamburg the likeliest side to win. A draw is in play, but 2-1 to the hosts is next most likely, and we give both teams to score a 60% chance. We expect 1.57 goals from Hamburg and 1.38 from Gladbach, and put Over 1.5 goals at 80%.
Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach in the 2026 Bundesliga kicks off at 19:30 UK on Friday 6 November 2026 at the Volksparkstadion. Hamburg are 15th on 9 points from 8 games, Gladbach are 18th on 4, and we give Hamburg a 41% chance of winning.
We predict a 1-1 draw in this Bundesliga game, the likeliest scoreline at 12%. We still make Hamburg the favourites at 41% to win, against 33% for Gladbach and 26% for a draw.
Hamburg are the favourites for this 2026 Bundesliga game, priced at 2.45 at bet365 and given a 41% chance by our model. Gladbach are 2.75 at bet365 and the draw is 3.70 at Ladbrokes.
We give both teams to score a 60% chance in Hamburg vs Gladbach in the 2026 Bundesliga, with the best price 1.53 at bet365. Gladbach have conceded 22 goals in 8 games and 88% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
Hamburg are 15th in the 2026 Bundesliga on 9 points from 8 games, while Gladbach are 18th and bottom on 4 points. Hamburg have won 3 and lost 5, Gladbach have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 6.
Philipp Sander has committed at least 1 foul in 8 straight Bundesliga games for Gladbach in 2026, averaging 2 a game. He is 1.14 at bet365 to foul again.
For this 2026 Bundesliga game our possible starting lineup has Hamburg with Heuer Fernandes in goal and Moffi up front, and Gladbach with Batz in goal and Machino leading the line. Hamburg also have Sambi Lokonga and Adeline in midfield; Gladbach have Sander and Hack.