Getafe and Rayo Vallecano meet at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez on Monday 19 October, kick-off 8pm UK, separated by a single place in La Liga. Getafe are 14th and Rayo 13th, both on 8 points, and the contrast is in how they get there: one side cannot score, the other cannot stop conceding.
It is a Madrid-area derby with a clear split in the numbers. Getafe have scored 4 goals in 8 league games. Rayo have scored 11 and let in 16 in 7. Our model cannot split them, which is why this is a game for the player markets as much as the result.
Getafe have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 8, with 4 goals scored and 10 conceded. They average 0.5 goals a game, the 2nd fewest in the division, and 2.5 shots on target, the fewest of all 20 clubs. Both teams to score has landed in only 25% of their games, the 2nd lowest rate, and their shots on target output explains why.
They lost 3-0 at Barcelona last time out in the league, then drew 1-1 at U Craiova in the Europa Conference League on Thursday. Their win over Málaga was 1-0, which is how Getafe tend to do it. They also lead the league in cards at 3.88 a game, and their 14.25 fouls a game is the 3rd most.
Rayo Vallecano have the same 8 points from 7 games, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats. Their games are open: both teams to score has landed in 88% of them, the 2nd highest rate, and 63% have gone over 2.5 goals. They average 2 goals against, the 4th most, and have kept a clean sheet in just 13% of games.
They are coming off a 0-0 at home to Athletic Club, a rare quiet one, after a 1-1 at Osasuna. Before that came a 2-1 win over Espanyol, a 4-1 defeat at Real Madrid and a 3-2 win over Racing. Rayo create more than Getafe too, with 4.57 shots on target a game, the 8th most.
Getafe possible starting lineup:
Soria; Femenía, Djené, Abqar, Mojica; Martín, Gudelj, Serrano; Terrats, Satriano, García
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Audero; Balliu, Lejeune, Sadick, Pedrosa; Ciss, Díaz, López; De Frutos, Camello, Álvaro García
Sergio Camello has had 2 or more shots in six straight games, averaging 3.2 a game. He is 1.36 at bet365 to do it again, and our model also fancies him for 2 or more fouls at 2.75.
Martín Satriano has committed at least one foul in eight straight games, 1.8 a game on average, and is 1.18 at bet365 to extend the run.
Unai López has made at least one tackle in seven straight games, 2.1 a game, and has had a shot in each of his last four. Pathé Ciss has tackled in six in a row.
Jorge de Frutos has made a tackle in each of his last five, averaging 2, and is 1.30 at bet365 to keep it going. For Getafe, Andrés García has tackled in seven straight at 1.9 a game.
Florian Lejeune has had a shot in each of his last five games, 2.2 a game, and is 1.29 at bet365 to have another.
Our model barely separates the three results: Getafe are 34% to win, the draw 33% and Rayo 33%, so Getafe get the nod by the narrowest of margins at 3.00 with bet365. Rayo are 2.63 and the draw is 3.10 at Ladbrokes. For goals, both teams to score is 2.10 at bet365 and over 2.5 goals is 2.63.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe win | 3.00 (bet365) | 34% |
| Draw | 3.10 (Ladbrokes) | 33% |
| Rayo Vallecano win | 2.63 (bet365) | 33% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 (bet365) | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.63 (bet365) | 33% |
We predict Getafe 1-1 Rayo Vallecano, the likeliest score at 15%, with 0-0 just behind at 14%. A draw is in play, and our projection of 1.01 goals for Getafe and 1.00 for Rayo points to a tight, low-scoring afternoon rather than the open game Rayo's own numbers suggest. Over 1.5 goals is 1.53 at bet365 and the model gives it 61%.
The interest is in the player markets. Camello's shot run, Satriano's fouls and De Frutos' tackles all sit at short prices backed by long unbroken runs.