Valencia host Athletic Club at the Estadio de Mestalla on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 8pm UK, and the game sets the league's meanest defence against one of its thinnest attacks. Athletic have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games, the highest rate in La Liga, while Valencia have scored 0.75 goals a match, the 3rd fewest.
It is also a meeting between a side at the wrong end of the table and one with a little breathing room. Valencia are 19th on 5 points; Athletic are 10th on 8. Neither has been prolific, which is why a low-scoring evening is very much on the cards.
Valencia have won once in eight league games, and that was the 1-0 at Alaves in September. They have lost five, conceded 15 and scored just 6. The worst of it was the 5-0 home defeat to Barcelona, and they also lost 2-3 to Sociedad at Mestalla. Last time out they drew 2-2 at Racing, a point that at least stopped the slide. Their shots on target average of 2.63 a game is the 3rd fewest in the division.
Athletic are unbeaten in their last five, with back-to-back wins at Celta (2-0) and at home to Atlético (3-0), followed by draws with Elche (1-1), Alaves (0-0) and a 0-0 at Rayo. They have conceded 0.86 goals a game, the 2nd fewest in La Liga. Where they are ordinary is in front of goal: 1 a game, the 6th fewest.
Only 29% of Athletic's games have seen both teams score, the 2nd lowest rate in the league, and Valencia's rate is the 4th lowest at 38%. In the La Liga table, the gap is nine places and three points.
Valencia possible starting lineup:
Dimitrievski; Maffeo, Diakhaby, De Haas, Gayà ; Guido RodrÃguez, Pepelu; Raba, Ugrinic, Guerra; Duro
Athletic Club possible starting lineup:
Unai Simón; Areso, Yeray, Paredes, Berchiche; Ruiz de Galarreta, Gerenabarrena; Navarro, Berenguer, Canales; Iñaki Williams
Oihan Sancet has had at least two shots in six straight games, averaging 2.8, and bet365 have him at 1.30 to make it seven. He is the longest shooting run on either side.
Iñaki Williams has managed two or more shots in four in a row and is 1.33 at bet365.
Guido RodrÃguez is the man to follow for Valencia. He has made three or more tackles in four straight games, averaging 4.5, and that run is the best of its kind in the whole division. He is 1.83 at bet365 to keep it going.
Dani Raba has had two or more shots in four of his last five, with a high of four, and is 1.25 at bet365 to reach two again.
Yuri Berchiche has committed a foul in five straight games and is 1.20 at bet365. He also sits second in our model's ranking for a shot on the night, at 1.62.
We back Athletic Club narrowly, at 2.20 with bet365. Valencia are 3.40 with bet365 and the draw is 3.40 with Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia to win | 3.40 (bet365) | 34% |
| Draw | 3.40 (Ladbrokes) | 29% |
| Athletic Club to win | 2.20 (bet365) | 37% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 (bet365) | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 (bet365) | 44% |
Our prediction is Valencia 1-1 Athletic Club, with the draw very much in play, though we make Athletic slightly more likely to win. A 0-1 away win is next most likely at 10%. The model expects 1.18 goals from Valencia and 1.25 from Athletic, and gives Athletic a 31% chance of another clean sheet.
The interest lies in the player markets. Sancet's six-game shooting run and Guido RodrÃguez's tackling run are the standout streaks, and Iñaki Williams and Raba each have a shots line that suits their recent form. Referee Adrián Cordero Vega has had two games in La Liga this season, averaging 6.5 yellow cards a match.