Updated 6 November 2026.
Atlético Madrid host FC Barcelona at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 8pm UK, with the top two in La Liga meeting. Barcelona lead on 30 points from 11 games and Atlético sit 2nd on 28, so a home win would put them top. Atlético have the fewest goals conceded per game in the league and Barcelona the most scored.
Atlético have conceded 8 goals in 11 games, while Barcelona have scored 46. We make Barcelona 49% to win, the draw 23% and Atlético 28%, with 1-1 the likeliest single score.
Atlético have won nine of 11 league games and lost only once. Their goals-against average of 0.73 per game is the fewest in the division, and they have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their matches, the highest rate in the league. They are 2nd in the table, two points behind Barcelona.
Atlético won 1-0 at Espanyol on 17 October, drew 1-1 at Stuttgart in the Champions League on 20 October, beat Deportivo 1-0 at home on 24 October and won 2-0 at Levante on 31 October. On Tuesday they lost 2-0 at home to Bayern in the Champions League, their only defeat in their last ten games in all competitions.
Barcelona average 4.18 goals a game, the most in La Liga, and put 8.09 shots on target per match, also the most. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 91% of their games, the highest rate in the league, and they have won 10 of 11 without a draw.
They lost 2-1 at home to Real Madrid on 25 October and went down 4-2 at PSG in the Champions League five days before that. Since then they have beaten Alavés 6-1 on 31 October and Aston Villa 3-0 on Tuesday.
Atlético Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Grimaldo; Simeone, Hjulmand, Barrios, Baena; Lee, Alvarez
FC Barcelona possible starting lineup:
García; Cancelo, Fariñas Pérez, Cubarsí, Martín; Bernal, Pedri; Yamal, Fermín López, Gordon; Raphinha
Lamine Yamal has had three or more shots in ten straight games, averaging 5.7 a game across them. He is 1.29 at bet365 to make it eleven.
Raphinha has had a shot in ten straight games and a shot on target in four of his last five. Anthony Gordon has 10 shots on target in his last five games and is 1.40 at bet365 for one here.
For Atlético, Álex Baena has had a shot in nine straight games, averaging 2.4. Julián Alvarez has had a shot in seven in a row. Dávid Hancko has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.80 at bet365 to have one again.
We back Barcelona to win, and they are 1.83 at bet365. Our model gives them a 49% chance, with Atlético at 28% and the draw at 23%. Both teams to score is 1.33 at bet365, and we make it 67%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid win | 3.70 (bet365) | 28% |
| Draw | 4.33 (bet365) | 23% |
| FC Barcelona win | 1.83 (bet365) | 49% |
| Both teams to score | 1.33 (bet365) | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 (bet365) | 67% |
We project 1.48 goals for Atlético and 1.99 for Barcelona, and our prediction is 1-1, the likeliest single score at 10%, though we make Barcelona the likelier winner at 49% to Atlético's 28%. 1-2 is next at 9%, and both teams score in four of our five likeliest scorelines.
Atlético Madrid vs FC Barcelona kicks off at 8pm UK on Sunday 8 November 2026 at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid. It is a La Liga 2026/27 fixture between the top two clubs, Barcelona on 30 points and Atlético on 28.
We predict a 1-1 draw between Atlético Madrid and FC Barcelona in La Liga 2026/27, the likeliest single score at 10%. We make Barcelona the likelier winner overall, with a 49% chance against 28% for Atlético and 23% for the draw.
FC Barcelona are the favourites at 1.83 with bet365 for the La Liga game on 8 November 2026. Atlético Madrid are 3.70 and the draw is 4.33, and our model gives Barcelona a 49% chance of winning.
We give both teams to score a 67% chance in Atlético Madrid vs FC Barcelona in La Liga 2026/27, and over 2.5 goals the same. Barcelona have gone over 2.5 goals in 91% of their league games this season, and Atlético have kept a clean sheet in 55% of theirs.
FC Barcelona lead La Liga on 30 points from 11 games in the 2026/27 season, while Atlético Madrid are 2nd on 28 points from 11. Barcelona have scored 46 goals and conceded 12, while Atlético have scored 22 and conceded 8.
Lamine Yamal has had 3+ shots in 10 straight La Liga games for FC Barcelona in 2026/27, averaging 5.7 shots a game across them. bet365 have him at 1.29 for three or more shots against Atlético Madrid on 8 November.
Predicted lineups for Atlético vs Barcelona in the 2026/27 La Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026: Atlético Madrid may start Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Grimaldo; Simeone, Hjulmand, Barrios, Baena; Lee, Alvarez. FC Barcelona may start García; Cancelo, Fariñas Pérez, Cubarsí, Martín; Bernal, Pedri; Yamal, Fermín López, Gordon; Raphinha.