Bolton Wanderers host Stoke City at the University of Bolton Stadium on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 15:00 UK. Stoke arrive in 7th, Bolton are 15th, and both come off wins that came in a hurry: Bolton won 4-3 at Norwich, Stoke beat Sheffield United 2-1. Everything points to goals at both ends.
The model gives Stoke a 36% chance of winning, Bolton 38% and the draw 27%, so there is very little between them. It adds up to a game that could go either way.
Bolton have 10 points from 8 games, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, and a goal difference of minus 4 (11 scored, 15 conceded). They have conceded 1.88 goals a game, the 5th most in the division. Their last five tell a mixed story: a 3-2 loss at Sheffield United, a 4-0 defeat at Millwall, a 2-3 home defeat to West Ham, then a 1-0 win over Cardiff and the 4-3 win at Norwich. They have won their last two.
Stoke have 13 points from 8, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, and have scored 13 and conceded 12. They have won four of their last five and drawn the other. The run runs from a 1-0 win over Norwich through a 4-0 win against Charlton, a 1-1 draw at Cardiff and a 2-1 win at Watford, to the 2-1 win over Sheffield United.
Stoke have been involved in plenty of goals, with both teams scoring in 75% of their games, the 6th highest rate in the league, and over 2.5 goals in 75% of them. Bolton's games are less one-way, with both teams scoring in half of them. Stoke also commit 15.4 fouls a game, the most in the Championship, and collect the 3rd most cards at 2.75 a game. Bolton commit only 9.9 fouls a game, the 6th fewest.
Bolton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Bazunu; Larrazabal, Toal, Davies, Conway; Sheehan, Erhahon, Ito; Iling-Junior, Gale, Dalby
Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Johansson; Wilmot, Graham, Taloverov, Bocat; Soumaré, Pearson; McGlynn, Hirst, Gallagher
Eric-Junior Bocat is the headline name. The Stoke left-back has had a shot in all eight of his games this season, averaging 1.5, and ladbrokes offer 1.60 for him to do it again.
S. Dalby leads Bolton's attack and has committed a foul in six straight games, with midnite at 1.30 for another.
Ethan Erhahon has made a tackle in seven consecutive games, averaging 2.3, and Djibril Soumaré has done the same for Stoke, averaging 2 across his seven.
Ben Johnson has registered a shot on target in four straight games, with bet365 offering 3.00 on him to extend that to five.
The model gives Bolton the slightest of edges, 38% to 36%, while the bookmakers lean the other way and make Stoke the 2.50 favourites at ladbrokes. Because the two views barely differ, the most interesting angles are in the player markets rather than the result.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton Wanderers win | 2.70 (ladbrokes) | 38% |
| Draw | 3.40 (bet365) | 27% |
| Stoke City win | 2.50 (ladbrokes) | 36% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 54% |
Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at around 13%, though we make Bolton slightly more likely to win the game. A draw is clearly in play. We project 1.45 goals for Bolton and 1.41 for Stoke, and both teams scoring comes out at 59%.
For a three-leg player angle, Bocat to have a shot (1.25 at bet365), Dalby to commit a foul (1.30 at midnite) and Erhahon to commit a foul (1.36 at midnite) combine at 2.48.