Wolverhampton Wanderers host Bolton Wanderers at Molineux Stadium on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 7.45pm UK. Wolves sit 5th in the Championship table on 14 points from eight games. Bolton are 17th on 10 from nine, and they arrive having conceded 17 goals, the 3rd most in the division.
Wolves lost 1-0 at Middlesbrough on Saturday. Bolton lost 2-1 to Stoke at the weekend, and Wolves have the better attack and the better defence on the numbers.
Wolves have scored 15 and conceded 11, which averages 1.88 goals for per game, the 5th most in the league. They have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their games, the 6th highest rate. At home they beat West Bromwich Albion 1-0 on 20 September, and before that they won 1-0 at Sheffield United. The 1-0 defeat at Middlesbrough was their latest outing, and they drew 2-2 at Birmingham in early September. Their last ten league and cup games read three defeats, five wins and two draws.
Bolton have been far more open. They concede 1.89 goals a game and score 1.33, and 67% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the 6th highest rate in the division. Their last five tell the story: a 4-0 loss at Millwall, a 2-3 defeat to West Ham, a 1-0 win over Cardiff, a 4-3 win at Norwich and then the 1-2 loss to Stoke. They average 4.78 shots on target per game, the 7th most, so they do create chances.
Wolves commit more fouls than most, averaging 12.13 per game, the 4th most, while Bolton commit 9.67, the 5th fewest. Referee Tim Robinson has averaged 4.8 yellow cards across five games this season.
Wolverhampton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
José Sá; Trippier, Toti, Djiga, Bueno; Munetsi, André, Doyle; Saïd, Mané, Armstrong
Bolton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Bazunu; Larrazabal, Toal, Davies, Conway; Sheehan, Erhahon, Rodrigues; Dong, Gale, Dalby
Marshall Munetsi has committed at least one foul in eight straight games for Wolves, averaging 1.6, and he is 1.17 at midnite to make it nine. Alongside him, André has fouled in six in a row at 2.2 a game and has made at least one tackle in each of those six, averaging four.
Up front, Raúl Jiménez has had a shot in six straight games at 2.7 per game.
For Bolton, Ethan Erhahon has made a tackle in eight straight games at 2.1 a game and has also fouled in each of his last four, which is 1.30 at midnite. Kyliane Dong has had a shot in four in a row and is 1.40 at bet365.
We back Wolves to win, with the best price 1.44 at Ladbrokes. We give them a 70% chance, with the draw at 19% and a Bolton win at 11%. The interest here sits in the player markets: Rafiki Saïd has had at least two shots in each of his last five games, with a high of five, and the 1.29 at bet365 for him to do it again is the sort of price that fits his form. Rúben Rodrigues has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.33 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 1.44 (Ladbrokes) | 70% |
| Draw | 4.80 (Coral) | 19% |
| Bolton win | 7.50 (bet365) | 11% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (bet365) | 82% |
Our model expects 2.28 goals from Wolves and 0.82 from Bolton, and we predict a 2-0 home win, the likeliest single scoreline at 12%. Wolves keep a clean sheet in 44% of our simulations, though Bolton's scoring record gives them a fair chance of a goal.