Derby County host Stoke City at Pride Park Stadium on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 3pm UK. The two sides sit a long way apart in the table: Derby are 23rd in the Championship with six points from ten games, while Stoke are 8th on 16 points. Yet the numbers are closer than the table suggests, and our model gives Derby a slight edge at home.
Derby have won once all season and have lost six of their ten. They come into this one off a 4-1 defeat at QPR on Wednesday. Before that they drew 1-1 with Wrexham and 1-1 at Burnley, so there has been some resistance among the losses. The problem is at both ends: they score 0.9 goals a game, the 4th fewest in the division, and concede 1.9, the 5th most.
They do make themselves heard in other ways. Derby commit the 3rd most fouls in the league at 12.3 a game and pick up the 5th most cards at 2.4, and they win the 10th most corners.
Stoke arrive from a defeat of their own, a 3-2 home loss to Middlesbrough on Tuesday. That ended a run of three straight wins, which included a 2-1 win at Bolton, a 2-1 win over Sheffield United and a 2-1 win at Watford. They score 1.7 a game, the 5th most in the Championship, and 80% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest rate in the league. Eight in ten have also seen both teams score, the 2nd highest.
Stoke are the most fouling side in the division at 14.1 a game and have the 2nd most cards at 2.5, so this has the makings of a niggly afternoon. Oliver Langford takes charge, with 4.2 yellow cards a game across his five matches this season.
Bobby Clark (Derby) has had a shot on target in four straight games and at least two shots in each of those four, averaging 3.3 a game. A shot on target is 2.30 at Ladbrokes and 2+ shots is 1.65.
Djibril Soumaré (Stoke) has won a tackle in nine straight games and committed a foul in five in a row. The foul market is 1.22 at Midnite.
Róbert BoženÃk (Stoke) has committed at least two fouls in each of his last five, with scores of 4, 2, 3, 4 and 3. Fouls 1+ is 1.06 at Midnite.
Henrik Meister (Derby) has fouled in five straight and averages 2.2 a game, with 1+ fouls at 1.17 at Midnite.
Ethan Galbraith (Stoke) is the pick on the shots market. He has had a shot in four of his last five, and the model rates him highly: shots 1+ is 1.53 at bet365, with 2+ at 3.40 and a shot on target at 3.00.
We back Derby, narrowly: our model gives them a 42% chance of winning, with the draw at 27% and Stoke at 31%. Derby are 2.60 at Ladbrokes, the draw is 3.40 at bet365 and Stoke are 2.63 at Midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 2.60 (Ladbrokes) | 42% |
| Draw | 3.40 (bet365) | 27% |
| Stoke win | 2.63 (Midnite) | 31% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 (Midnite) | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 51% |
We project 1.48 goals for Derby and 1.24 for Stoke. The likeliest score is 1-1, though we make Derby slightly more likely to win, and a draw is firmly in play. Both teams to score comes in at 56%, and Stoke's 80% both-teams-to-score and over 2.5 rates back that up.
For a bet builder, the Stoke foul legs stack up: Soumaré 1+ fouls, BoženÃk 2+ fouls and Galbraith 1+ shots come to 1.86 combined, and each of the three has hit in at least four of his last five.
Prediction: Derby County 1-1 Stoke City.