Some fixtures arrive with a story. This one arrives with a shrug, and that is genuinely the interesting thing about it.
Everton finished last season with one point from five games. Palace were not a great deal better. Both spent the summer rebuilding, both start again on Saturday afternoon, and the model looks at the pair of them and produces the highest draw probability on the weekend's coupon at 31%. When a model cannot separate two teams, it is usually because there is nothing to separate.
Kickoff is 3:00pm UK. The numbers come from the live Statz match centre.
Everton's summer shows up in the expected XI: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Merlin Röhl in behind Thierno Barry, Christian Nørgaard screening a back four that still has Tarkowski and Branthwaite in it. James Garner is the only absentee.
Palace have no fresh injury concerns at all, which at this stage of August is worth something. They line up 3-4-3, with Daichi Kamada and Adam Wharton in the engine room and Ismaïla Sarr and Yeremy Pino either side of Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Everton predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Mykolenko, Branthwaite, Tarkowski, O'Brien; Nørgaard, Hackney; Ndiaye, Dewsbury-Hall, Röhl; Barry.
Palace predicted XI (3-4-3): Henderson; Tomiyasu, Richards, Canvot; Mitchell, Kamada, Wharton, Muñoz; Yeremy, Sarr, Mateta.
Everton's closing five read LDDLL, Palace's DLDLW. Neither has anything to boast about. The projections are similarly tepid: 1.30 goals to 1.07, with clean-sheet chances of 34.4% and 27.2%.
What the model does like is Everton at home. A 40.2% home win against 28.8% is a clearer lean than the form lines suggest, and it comes from the summer business rather than anything either side did in May.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The pick of the starters here is Ismaïla Sarr to score anytime at 3.75. The model gives him a 30.2% chance, he has scored in two of his last five, and Palace's front three is where their entire threat lives - Mateta gets the attention, Sarr gets the space.
If you want something shorter, Adam Wharton at 1.57 for 1+ shot is backed by a 65.7% projection and four shots in one of his last five outings. Note that Everton's most-fancied prop on the raw board belongs to Dwight McNeil, who is not in the predicted XI - a reminder that the value list and the team sheet are two different documents.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Everton at 2.15 is a fair price rather than a gift, and I am not confident enough in a side that won once in its last dozen to take it.
The goals market reads better. The model has over 2.5 at 57.8% (1.91 at the time of writing), which for a fixture with this reputation feels like the bookmakers pricing the past rather than the present. Everton have added attacking midfielders, Palace have a front three that carries genuine threat, and neither defence kept many clean sheets last spring.
The bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.91.
Two sides who ended last season badly, a 31% draw chance, and a crowd that will turn quickly if it stays goalless. That is the honest read.
But almost 2/1 about three goals between two teams who have both spent money on attackers is the value on this fixture, and I would rather be on that than guessing at a result the model itself cannot call.