Saturday, 3:00pm UK at the Etihad, and the rawest mismatch of our weekend previews on the model's numbers. Manchester City have won both league games, scoring three per game - only two teams average more - while promoted Coventry have lost both of theirs without scoring. The projection is stark: 2.72 goals for City, 0.69 for Coventry, and a shot count of 22.49 to 7.42.
Coventry have already met one of the big sides away from home this season and lost 3-0 at Arsenal, so the assignment is familiar. All the live numbers below come from the Statz match centre and keep updating to kickoff.
These are expected line-ups, not confirmed team sheets.
City's expected XI has Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal behind Abdukodir Khusanov, Rúben Dias, Marc Guéhi and Josko Gvardiol, with Nico O'Reilly and Elliot Anderson in midfield. Phil Foden, Rayan Cherki and Antoine Semenyo play behind Erling Haaland.
Coventry are expected to keep the side compact: Carl Rushworth in goal, Milan van Ewijk, Bobby Thomas, Aurèle Amenda and Jay Dasilva across the back, Matt Grimes and Caleb Yirenkyi holding, and Loum Tchaouna, Jack Rudoni and Ephron Mason-Clark supporting Taiwo Awoniyi.
Manchester City expected XI (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; Khusanov, Dias, Guéhi, Gvardiol; O'Reilly, Anderson; Foden, Cherki, Semenyo; Haaland.
Coventry City expected XI (4-2-3-1): Rushworth; van Ewijk, Amenda, Thomas, Dasilva; Grimes, Yirenkyi; Tchaouna, Rudoni, Mason-Clark; Awoniyi.
City's last five, newest first, is W-W-L-D-W: a 4-1 win at Crystal Palace, 2-1 over Bournemouth, then back to the end of last season for a 1-2 home defeat to Aston Villa, a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth and a 1-0 FA Cup win over Chelsea. This season's league sample is short but loud - three goals scored per game (rank 3 of 20), 7.5 shots on target per game (rank 2) and seven corners per game, the most in the division.
Coventry's five reads L-W-L-W-W newest first: beaten 1-0 at home by Hull City in the league last weekend, a 4-2 Carabao Cup win at Plymouth, beaten 3-0 at Arsenal on the opening night, and promotion-season wins over Watford (4-0) and Wrexham (3-1). In the league this season they have not scored (rank 18 of 20 for goals per game) and are managing two shots on target per game, rank 19.
Erling Haaland has recorded two or more shots on target in four of his last five appearances, 11 in total at 2.2 per game. Against a defence conceding two goals per league game and a team the model projects to muster 2.60 shots on target across the whole match, that number carries the fixture's headline.
Coventry do have live legs of their own. Jack Rudoni has had at least one shot in all five of his last five (10 attempts in total), and Loum Tchaouna has managed the same, eight shots across the run. At the back, Aurèle Amenda has committed at least one foul in every one of his last five, nine fouls in all - and Coventry are projected for 16.58 tackles here against City's 12.37, the classic away-day-at-the-Etihad shape.
Referee Paul Tierney has taken one league game this season: 20 fouls, a single yellow card.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
City to win is not a price worth writing about, so the model goes looking elsewhere - and lands somewhere unexpected: Rúben Dias in the foul markets. It ranks him eighth-likeliest on its board for 1+ foul while the market prices him 21st, at 2.20 at the time of writing, with 2+ fouls at 7.00. A centre-back stepping out against counter-attacking forwards is precisely the profile the market underprices, and Coventry's outlet runners - Tchaouna and Awoniyi in the expected XI - are the sort he ends up chasing.
The model also flags Vitor Reis for 1+ foul at 1.80 at the time of writing as the single likeliest outcome on its board, though he is not in the expected XI, so that one only comes alive if he starts.
The team-level case follows the projections: 2.72 plus 0.69 is 3.41 combined goals, with City having landed over 2.5 goals in 100% of league games so far and Coventry yet to register a goal. The full projection table for the round is on the Statz projections page.
The model projects City to out-shoot Coventry three to one and out-score them by two clear goals, and nothing in either team's early-season numbers argues with it. Coventry's plan will be tackles, fouls and Rudoni or Tchaouna on the break, which is exactly why the foul and card columns hold more betting interest than the result. Haaland's on-target record and the Dias foul line at 2.20 at the time of writing are where the numbers point.