Who is favourite in Sunderland vs Arsenal?

Arsenal are favourites at 1.48 with bet365. The Statz model projects the away win at 63.0% against a fair probability of about 64.2% implied by that price, so the market is fractionally stronger on Arsenal than the model is. Sunderland are projected at 12.6%.

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Arsenal?

The Statz model leans No, projecting both teams to score at 37.4% against a 2.20 price that implies about 42.4%. The No is projected at 62.6% against 1.62, which implies 57.6%, and that five-point gap is the largest disagreement the model has with the market on this fixture.

How have Sunderland performed since promotion?

Sunderland have created 4.64 expected goals and conceded 3.46 across their first three Premier League matches, an average of 1.55 against 1.15 per game. At Brentford on 5 September they won the expected-goals count 2.40 to 1.37 and drew 1-1.

Sunderland vs Arsenal Predictions and Betting Tips - Premier League

Sunderland host Arsenal at the Stadium of Light on Saturday 12 September, kick-off 8pm UK time. It is the promoted side against the team with the best defensive numbers in the division, three days after Arsenal won 1-0 at Napoli in the Champions League. The Statz model has the visitors at 63.0% and, more interestingly, thinks this will be a quiet game.

Projected goals are 0.61 for Sunderland and 1.69 for Arsenal. The live picture through to kick-off is on the Statz match centre.

How the teams arrive

Sunderland read WLWDW across their last five, oldest to newest, and the underlying numbers are the quiet story of the early season. Across three Premier League matches they have created 4.64 expected goals and conceded 3.46, which is 1.55 against 1.15 per game. That is a positive expected-goal difference for a promoted side after three rounds.

The standout was last Saturday at Brentford. Sunderland won the expected-goals count 2.40 to 1.37 and came away with a 1-1 draw, the largest expected-goals total any away side produced in Gameweek 3. It is worth being precise about the pattern, though: their other away trip went the other way, 0.91 created to 1.43 conceded in a 2-1 defeat at Ipswich Town. At home they beat Fulham 1-0 off 1.33 to 0.66, so the result matched the performance there. One away display has run ahead of its result, not two. They then beat Hull City 1-0 in the Carabao Cup on Monday.

Arsenal read DWWWW and the defensive record behind it is the number that shapes this fixture. In three league games they have conceded 1.12 expected goals in total, 0.37 per match: 0.19 against Coventry City, 0.43 at Aston Villa, 0.50 against Chelsea. They rank 2nd of 20 for goals conceded at 0.33 per game and 2nd for clean sheets at 67%. At the other end they have created 5.62 expected goals, 1.87 per game, and scored six.

The model's predicted XI pairs Gabriel Magalhães with Ezri Konsa at centre-back, with Ben White and Riccardo Calafiori as the full-backs. These are predicted line-ups rather than confirmed team sheets, so check team news before kick-off.

What the model says

The Statz model projects an Arsenal win at 63.0%. bet365 price them at 1.48, implying a fair probability of about 64.2% once the margin comes out, so the market is a shade stronger on the visitors than the model is. Sunderland are projected at 12.6% against 7.50, which implies 12.7%, leaving the draw with the remaining 24.4%. On the match result, model and market are saying the same thing.

The goals markets are where they part. Both teams to score - No is projected at 62.6% against a 1.62 price implying 57.6%, a five-point gap and the largest on the fixture. Under 2.5 follows at 59.5% against 1.73, which implies 54.8%, a gap of 4.7. The driver is the Sunderland side of the projection: 0.61 goals is the lowest team figure the model produces for any side in the entire Premier League round, and 0.61 plus 1.69 is 2.30 combined.

There is a real tension in that. Arsenal rank 2nd of 20 for the share of their league games going over 2.5 goals, at 67%, and Sunderland have seen both teams score in 67% of theirs, rank 3 of 20. The model is betting against both of those small samples on the strength of Arsenal's expected-goals-against record and Sunderland's modest attacking volume. John Brooks referees, averaging 5.5 yellow cards and 18.5 fouls across two league games this season.

Statz Bet Builder

See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.

Betting angles

If the model is right that this is a low-chance game, the value moves away from goals and into the tackle and foul lines, which is exactly where the board sits.

Enzo Le Fée is the strongest number on it. The model projects him at 2.36 tackles and rates 2+ at 68.3%, against a 1.62 price implying 61.7% at the time of writing. He has made at least one tackle in every one of his last five and two or more in three of them. Assuming he starts, a Sunderland midfield defending a lot of the ball is the setup that line wants.

Nordi Mukiele is the foul angle: 1.07 fouls projected, 1+ rated 65.7% against 1.57, which implies 63.7%, and at least one foul in four of his last five. His 2+ line is priced 3.75 with the model at 29.0%. Assuming he starts, the model ranks him among the likeliest foul-takers on the pitch while the market prices him well down its own list.

On the Arsenal side, Martin Ødegaard carries a 1.62 shot projection with 2+ shots rated 48.1% against 2.10, which implies 47.6%, and he has had at least one shot in all five of his last five. Bukayo Saka is projected at 1.15 shots on target with 1+ at 68.3% against 1.36. Both assume they start. One longer look: Christos Tzolis is rated 25.2% for a yellow card against a 6.00 price implying 16.7%, which is the biggest percentage gap on the whole board, though it rests on a small sample and a referee average rather than a heavy personal record.

The rest of Saturday's tackle and foul lines are on the fouls bet builder of the day, and the daily acca gathers the best of the card into one slip.

Prediction

The model's call is a controlled away win: Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal. That fits the 63.0% away projection, the 1.69 goals it gives Arsenal, and both of the leans it actually holds, Under 2.5 at 59.5% and both teams to score - No at 62.6%. The caveat is honest enough: Sunderland have created more than their results have shown at least once already this season, and a side that out-shoots Brentford at the Gtech is not a side that turns up to be passive. A projection, not a promise.

Champions League tickets

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18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at the time of writing.