Sunderland host Brighton & Hove Albion at the Stadium of Light on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 3pm UK. It is a meeting between the Premier League's most prolific attack and a home side that has conceded ten in five league games.
Brighton are 3rd on 10 points after five, with 16 goals scored and only five conceded. Sunderland are 14th on 4 points, and they are coming off a 5-3 defeat at Manchester City.
Sunderland have won one, drawn one and lost three of their five league games, scoring six and conceding ten. The latest of those was the 5-3 loss at Manchester City. Before that came a 1-0 Europa League win over AZ, a 2-0 home defeat by Arsenal and a 1-0 Carabao Cup win over Hull.
The defensive numbers are the worry. Sunderland concede 2 a game, which is the 5th most in the division, and they commit the 3rd most fouls and collect the 3rd most cards. Both teams have scored in 60% of their league games, the 4th highest rate, and they get the 6th most shots on target. Their shots on target and fouls boards show the same profile.
Brighton have won three, drawn one and lost one in the league. The defeat was a 4-3 loss at Chelsea on the opening weekend. Since then they have drawn 1-1 with Leeds, won 5-0 at Coventry and, most recently, beaten Arsenal 3-0. They also won 3-2 at Manchester United in the Carabao Cup in between.
Their 3.2 goals a game is the most in the league, and their 5.8 shots on target a game is also the most. They have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games, the highest rate, and the 7th fewest goals against. Their goals and shots boards are worth a look.
Sunderland possible starting lineup:
Roefs; Mukiele, Danso, Alderete, Mandava; Xhaka, Sadiki, Le Fée; Meunier, Angulo, Isidor
Brighton & Hove Albion possible starting lineup:
Verbruggen; Kadıoğlu, Dunk, Vuskovic, Boscagli; Groß, Ayari, Yalcouyé; Gómez, De Cuyper, Kostoulas
Noah Sadiki has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 1.4 a game, and he is 1.91 at bet365 to make it six. He is also in Sunderland's predicted midfield.
Enzo Le Fée has made a tackle in each of his last five games, averaging 1.6, which is the kind of steady midfield work Brighton's attack will test.
Yasin Ayari has had two or more shots in four straight games, averaging 2.5, and is 1.73 at Ladbrokes.
Charalampos Kostoulas has had a shot on target in four straight games and is 1.67 at bet365. He averages 1.3 a game over that spell.
Pascal Groß has had a shot in all five of his games, 13 in total at 2.6 a game, and bet365 have him at 1.14 for a shot here.
We back Brighton, who are 2.30 at Ladbrokes to win. Sunderland are 3.10 at bet365 and the draw is 3.50. We also like both teams to score at 1.67 with Midnite, and over 2.5 goals at 1.80 with bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 3.10 (bet365) | 32% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 25% |
| Brighton win | 2.30 (Ladbrokes) | 43% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (Midnite) | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 58% |
Our model has Brighton to score 1.63 and Sunderland 1.39. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 11.6%, though we make Brighton the more likely winner. A draw is in play, but we are going for Sunderland 1-1 Brighton.
For the player markets, Brighton's midfield has the runs: Groß has had a shot in each of his last five games and Yalcouyé in each of his last four. Danso and Isidor have each committed a foul in five straight games, and Danso is 1.50 at bet365 to do it again. A Groß shot, a Yalcouyé shot, a Danso foul and an Isidor foul combine at 3.37 at bet365.