Manchester City welcome Ipswich Town to the Etihad Stadium on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 3pm UK, with a perfect record in the Premier League table: six played, six won, 18 points and 1st place. Ipswich sit 10th on 9 points, three wins and three defeats from their six, so this is a leader against a side in the pack that has been scoring freely and conceding just as readily.
City come in stung by a 4-2 home defeat to PSG in midweek.
Manchester City have won all six league games, scoring 16 and conceding 5. They have scored 2.67 goals a game, the 2nd most in the division, and let in 0.83, the fewest. They have kept a clean sheet in half their league games, the 2nd highest rate, and their games have gone over 2.5 goals 67% of the time, the 3rd highest.
Their last five across all competitions were a 2-4 home defeat to PSG in the Champions League on Wednesday, a 3-0 win at Liverpool on 11 October, a 5-3 win over Sunderland, a 5-0 Carabao Cup win over Norwich and a 1-0 win at Manchester United. They are also among the leaders for shots on target (5.17 a game, the 4th most) and corners (the 3rd most).
Ipswich arrive off a 2-1 home win over Fulham last Saturday, which followed a 1-0 loss at Everton, a 4-2 Carabao Cup defeat to Arsenal and a 3-2 win at Palace. They average 1.5 goals a game, the 7th most, but concede 2 a game, the 6th most, and have not kept a clean sheet in the league all season. Their games have produced both teams scoring 67% of the time, the 4th highest rate.
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Guéhi, O'Reilly; Anderson, Fernández; Ndiaye, Cherki, Semenyo; Haaland
Ipswich Town possible starting lineup:
Walton; Ouattara, Diop, O'Shea, Davis; Lukić, Florentino; Philogene, Enciso, Maeda; Emersonn
Erling Haaland has had at least one shot on target in all six league games, averaging 1.8, and at least two shots in each, averaging 3.7. He is 1.10 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target.
Julio Enciso has had two or more shots in six straight games, averaging 3.2, and bet365 offer 1.62 on him to do it again.
Rayan Cherki has had a shot in five straight games at 2.8 a game, while Enzo Fernández has had one in four running and is 1.07 at Ladbrokes to make it five.
In the middle, Saša Lukić has made a tackle in all six games and has committed three or more fouls in each of his last three, a run priced at 2.62 with Ladbrokes.
We back Manchester City to win, and the bookmakers agree: the best price is 1.25 at Ladbrokes. Our model gives City a 77% chance of the win, the draw 15% and Ipswich 8%. The interest is in the player markets, where Haaland, Cherki and Enciso all bring runs of shots into this game.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City win | 1.25 (Ladbrokes) | 77% |
| Draw | 7.00 (bet365) | 15% |
| Ipswich Town win | 11.00 (BoyleSports) | 8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 (Ladbrokes) | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 68% |
We project City for 2.71 goals and Ipswich for 0.82, with City's 7.66 shots on target against 3.11 for the visitors. Our prediction is a 2-0 win for Manchester City, the likeliest single score at 11%, with 3-0 and 2-1 the next most likely. Ipswich have scored in four of their six league games, so a goal for them is far from out of the question, and City have kept a clean sheet in 44% of simulations.