Tottenham Hotspur host Coventry City at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Monday 19 October, kick-off 8pm UK, and the hosts arrive 20th of 20 in the Premier League table without a win from six. Coventry City sit 15th on six points, with a 4-1 win over Newcastle fresh in the memory. Spurs have scored three goals all season and are still the clear favourites.
Spurs have three points from six games, three draws and three defeats, with 3 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their goals return is the lowest in the division at 0.5 a game. The last five have brought two goalless draws, at Forest and at home to Everton, a 3-1 Carabao Cup loss at Liverpool, a 2-3 home defeat to Villa and a 1-1 draw at Man Utd last time out.
There is one clear strength. Spurs average 7 corners a game, the most in the league, and they have kept a clean sheet in a third of their matches, the 7th highest rate. Both teams have scored in only a third of their games.
Coventry City have won two and lost four, with 5 scored and 11 conceded. The week-by-week picture is jagged: a 0-5 home loss to Brighton in September, then a 1-0 win at Forest, and last Monday's 4-1 win over Newcastle at home. Their card count is the lowest in the league at 1 a game, and both teams have scored in just 17% of their games, the lowest rate in the division.
Tottenham Hotspur possible starting lineup:
Kinský; Udogie, van Hecke, van de Ven, Gray; Gallagher, Tonali, Bergvall; Savinho, Kudus; Solanke
Coventry City possible starting lineup:
Rushworth; van Ewijk, Pinnock, Thomas, Dasilva; Grimes, Yirenkyi; Mason-Clark, Rudoni, Mfuni; Awoniyi
Jan Paul van Hecke has committed a foul in six straight games and made a tackle in all six as well, averaging 1.5 fouls a game. He is 1.53 at bet365 to commit a foul and 1.30 for a tackle.
Jack Rudoni has had a shot in six straight games, averaging 1.2, and is 1.40 at bet365 to make it seven.
Archie Gray has fouled in four in a row and made two or more tackles in three straight, at 2.00 at bet365 to make it four. Conor Gallagher has also made two or more tackles in three in a row, averaging 3 a game, and is 1.50 at bet365.
For Coventry, Matt Grimes has made a tackle in four straight, averaging 2.5 a game.
We back Tottenham Hotspur to win at 1.48 with Coral. Our model gives them a 59% chance, against 23% for the draw and 18% for a Coventry win.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur win | 1.48 (Coral) | 59% |
| Draw | 4.60 (Ladbrokes) | 23% |
| Coventry City win | 7.00 (bet365) | 18% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 (Ladbrokes) | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 56% |
We expect 1.94 goals from Spurs and 0.98 from Coventry. Our prediction is Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Coventry City, the likeliest single score at 11%, though we make a Spurs win more likely overall and a draw is certainly in play. A 2-0 or a 1-0 home win sit right behind it.
Spurs have been poor in front of goal, so the player markets are where the angles are. Sandro Tonali has had a shot in each of his last five and is 1.20 at bet365, while Taiwo Awoniyi has fouled in each of his last five and is 1.30. Tonali, Rudoni, Micky van de Ven to make a tackle (1.44) and Awoniyi combine to 3.14 at bet365.