Frosinone host Sassuolo at the Stadio Benito Stirpe on Friday 16 October, kick-off 19:45 UK, and the two sides have already met this season. Sassuolo drew 1-1 with Frosinone in the Coppa Italia on 2 September. This time it is a league game between 9th and 11th, separated by two points, and both teams have scored in every one of Sassuolo's six games so far.
Frosinone sit 9th in the Serie A table with 10 points from six games: three wins, a draw and two defeats, with nine goals scored and seven conceded. They lost 3-0 away at Napoli on 10 October, which followed a 2-0 home win over Como and a 1-1 draw at Genoa. At the back they have been solid, conceding seven in six games with a clean sheet in two of them. They also commit 16.17 fouls a game.
Sassuolo are 11th with 8 points from six, two wins, two draws and two defeats, and 10 goals scored and 10 conceded. They drew 1-1 with AC Milan on Sunday, after a 2-1 defeat at Monza and a 3-2 home win over Juventus. Their games are open: both teams have scored in all six and over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of them. Frosinone's own games have been tighter, with both teams scoring in only a third of them.
Frosinone possible starting lineup:
Palmisani; Oyono, Cittadini, Calvani, Masini; Calò, Bracaglia, Schmid; Kvernadze, Ghedjemis, Raimondo
Sassuolo possible starting lineup:
Murić; Van der Brempt, Caleta-Car, Odenthal, Doig; Matic, Bakola, Adžić; Berardi, Laurienté, Esposito
Giorgi Kvernadze has had two or more shots in each of Frosinone's six games, averaging three a game, and is 1.25 at bet365 to make it seven. Antonio Raimondo has also had a shot in all six, and has committed a foul in every game as well, averaging 1.7.
For Sassuolo, Vasilije Adžić has had a shot in six straight games, two a game on average, and is 1.05 at Ladbrokes to keep it going. Nemanja Matic has made two or more tackles in five in a row, 2.4 a game, and is 1.50 at bet365.
Among the Frosinone defenders, Gabriele Calvani has made two or more tackles in five straight, averaging 2.6, and is 1.67 at bet365.
We make Sassuolo a slight favourite at 39% to win, against 36% for Frosinone, and the bet365 price on Sassuolo is 2.60. The interest is more in the player markets, where the runs above sit. A four-leg bet builder of Matic two or more tackles, Calvani two or more tackles, Romano Schmid one or more foul and Gabriele Bracaglia one or more foul comes to 3.88 at bet365. Each of the four has hit that mark in all of his last five games.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Frosinone to win | 2.50 (bet365) | 36% |
| Draw | 3.75 (bet365) | 25% |
| Sassuolo to win | 2.60 (bet365) | 39% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 63% |
We predict 1-1, the likeliest single score at 11%, though we make Sassuolo slightly more likely to win, and a draw is firmly in play. We project 1.59 goals for Frosinone and 1.66 for Sassuolo, which points to a game with goals at both ends.
Statz prediction: Frosinone 1-1 Sassuolo.